$PIPPIN : Parabolic… but Running on Fumes ⚠️
$PIPPIN just ripped +46.7% to $0.5689, then immediately got hard rejected, printing a massive 75% upper wick. Price is now hovering around $0.476, still sitting ~29% above fair value with RSI 75.7 and MFI 75.9.
That’s not healthy profit-taking.
That’s distribution into late FOMO buyers.
What the chart is telling us 📉
Price is deep in premium: $0.476 vs equilibrium at $0.369
Heavy supply overhead from the last bearish order block ($0.398–$0.375)
Yes, structure flipped bullish (CHoCH)… but the rejection at $0.5689 formed a lower high
Rejection came with above-average volume, confirming sellers were active at the top
This combo is classic: strong rally → euphoric buying → smart money selling into strength.
Indicators: stretched and conflicted ⚖️
Bearish pressure
RSI & MFI deep overbought
Stochastic rolling over
Price far above equilibrium
ADX extreme → trends usually cool here, not extend
Bullish context
MACD still positive (lagging, reflects past momentum)
Long-term ascending trendline near $0.30 still intact
EMAs below price acting as support
The issue? Momentum indicators lag, while price + volume show real-time selling.
Trade idea 🎯
Primary scenario: pullback to value
Watch for a 4H close below $0.442 to confirm weakness
Shorts favored in the $0.45–$0.48 zone
Targets:
$0.369 (equilibrium)
$0.315 (FVG fill)
$0.263 (swing low / demand)
Alternate scenario
If price reclaims and holds above $0.442 with volume, we could see another push toward $0.52–$0.57 — but that’s the lower-probability path right now.
Bottom line
This isn’t a crash call.
It’s a mean reversion setup.
$PIPPIN is stretched, overheated, and rejecting hard.
Don’t chase green candles. Let price come back to value or prove continuation.
Patience is the edge here.
