Benchmark: Delay to U.S. crypto market-structure bill could cap valuations, sustain risk premium A delay in passing U.S. market-structure legislation would not send the crypto industry back to the enforcement-heavy climate of 2022–23, but it would keep the market structurally constrained just as global adoption and institutional interest accelerate, Wall Street broker Benchmark warned in a Monday report. Analyst Mark Palmer said the absence of a bill would leave a “structural risk premium” across much of the digital-asset ecosystem, limiting valuation upside for U.S.-exposed platforms. Rather than derail crypto’s maturation, a legislative miss this year would slow it: investors would lean toward bitcoin-centric exposure, firms with strong balance sheets, and cash-generating infrastructure while shunning regulatory-sensitive segments such as exchanges, DeFi and many altcoins. What the bill aims to do The proposed legislation is designed to clarify how digital assets should be classified—as commodities or securities—and to set clearer boundaries for SEC and CFTC oversight. After the House passed a version last year, debates shifted to technical issues like stablecoin yield rules and DeFi interface oversight. But Senate negotiations have been slower and more contentious, increasing the likelihood that final approval could slip into next year—a timing risk markets are already pricing in, Benchmark said. Practical consequences of a delay - Exchanges: Continued listing uncertainty, higher compliance costs, and limits on expanding into higher-margin products. - Stablecoins: Monetization and yield strategies could be stalled by unresolved rules on yield and distribution. - DeFi & smart-contract platforms: The most exposed segment, facing continued regulatory ambiguity that constrains U.S. participation. - Custody and compliance providers: Relatively defensive positions, benefitting from demand for regulatory-safe solutions. Who’s relatively insulated Benchmark expects bitcoin and bitcoin-focused treasury companies to be comparatively sheltered—given bitcoin’s established commodity status—along with miners and energy-backed infrastructure, which face less exposure to securities-style regulatory scrutiny. Outlook Despite the risks of delay, Palmer still rates passage of some form of market-structure bill as “more likely than not,” even if the final law is watered down. He argues that any version would reduce regulatory uncertainty and open the door to broader institutional participation in U.S. crypto markets. (See also: coverage of industry reactions, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s comments on related crypto legislation.) Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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