🔹 FINAL STAGE — POSITIONING & LONG TERM
📌 Day 28/01 - 27/30
WHY UNDERSTANDING CYCLES MATTERS MORE THAN PREDICTING PRICES
Many of us enter the crypto market trying to predict:
• the exact bottom
• the perfect top
• the next move
In practice, predicting prices RARELY defines good results.
What really makes a difference is understanding what phase of the cycle the market is in.
🧠 What are cycles in the crypto world?
The crypto market moves in clear cycles (OR USED TO!!!):
• periods of euphoria
• correction periods
• accumulation periods
• expansion periods
Each phase requires:
• different decisions
• different risk levels
• different expectations
📌 The common mistake is to act the same way in completely distinct cycles.
❌ Where most of us tend to go wrong:
🔹 Buying euphorically thinking it's the beginning
🔹 Selling in panic thinking it's the end
🔹 Waiting for upward behavior in a lateralization phase
🔹 Ignoring that time is also part of the investment
Those who don’t understand cycles always end up:
• delayed in decisions
• frustrated with results
• reacting to the market instead of positioning oneself
🔍 How to recognize cycles in practice? In a nutshell:
Recognizing is identifying in which phase the market is based on some signals.
🔹 Accumulation (beginning of the cycle)
Price moving sideways for a long time
Low volume
Little interest and almost no one talking about crypto
🔹 Expansion (mid-cycle)
Price starts to rise consistently
Volume increases gradually
Narratives start to gain strength
🔹 Euphoria / Distribution (end of the cycle)
Fast and almost vertical rises
Very high volume
"Everyone" talking about the same topic
Many beginners entering
🔹 Correction / Drop
Strong drops
Volume decreases again
Frustration and general disinterest
📌 Each phase requires different decisions.
The mistake is to act as if the entire market is always at the same moment.
🧩 Conclusion
It’s not about getting prices right but about understanding the moment.
Those who respect cycles make more rational decisions and suffer less from short-term noise.
🧭 FINAL PHASE — FOLLOW-UP (23 to 31/01)
✅ 23/01 – Long-term strategy is not waiting forever (Day 22/30)
✅ 24/01 – When reducing position is also an intelligent decision (Day 23/30)
✅ 25/01 – Why diversifying is not spreading money (Day 24/30)
✅ 26/01 – Risk vs return: where most people go wrong (Day 25/30)
✅ 27/01 – Liquidity matters more than it seems (Day 26/30)
✅ 28/01 – Why understanding cycles matters more than predicting prices (Day 27/30)
⬜ 29/01 – Capital management: what almost no one learns in crypto
⬜ 30/01 – What would I do differently if I were starting today
⬜ 31/01 – What really matters after 30 days of study (Day 30/30)
❗ Educational content. Not an investment recommendation.
