Vitalik Reveals Polymarket Profit Strategy: Betting Against Extreme Predictions to Earn $70,000

On January 29, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin disclosed that he earned $70,000 on the prediction market platform Polymarket last year, with a strategy specifically targeting bets against "crazy predictions." Buterin stated, "I look for markets that are in crazy mode and then bet that the crazy things won’t happen." He placed bets with a principal of about $440,000, achieving an annualized return rate of approximately 16%. Vitalik cited examples of markets betting that Trump would win the Nobel Peace Prize or that the dollar would collapse as good targets for his reverse bets. This is not the first time he has publicly discussed profiting from prediction markets; during the 2020 U.S. election, he also earned $58,000 using similar strategies.