Gold at $5,596… A record high, defying all market norms.
The recent movements in gold are no longer normal and cannot be explained by classical market logic or traditional supply and demand calculations.
History will record that January 2026 witnessed an unprecedented surge in gold, from a low of $4,309 to a high of $5,596 – a movement of approximately $1,300 between the bottom and the top in a very short period.
This dramatic rise is inconsistent with known economic data and the historical patterns of gold price movements.
The dollar has not collapsed. The dollar index moved between a low of 95.2 and a high of 99.1, meaning that the US currency has not lost confidence and has not entered a phase of genuine collapse that would justify this frenzied rush towards gold.
Furthermore, no world war has broken out; we have only witnessed the geopolitical skirmishes that have become almost commonplace on the international stage in recent years. There has been no comprehensive economic crisis, no wave of bank failures, and no collapse in the credit markets.
In addition, Jerome Powell's press conference yesterday contained no cause for concern. His remarks praised the improving labor market and the US economy, and he didn't raise any of the usual fears associated with such a move. Given the interest rate decision, it's expected to remain unchanged until mid-year, which is not favorable for gold.
Despite this, gold has risen by nearly 30% compared to its closing price at the end of 2025, a move that can only be described as a complete break from normal pricing patterns.
This surge doesn't reflect a reaction to an event, but rather a preemptive move, as if the markets are pricing in a danger that hasn't yet materialized, or a reality that hasn't been officially announced.
The key support is now confined between $5450 and $5516. A break above this support would push us to higher levels such as $5600, $5640, and $5680. However, a break below the support between $5450 and $5516 could trigger a strong correction down to $5400 and $5300.
