After the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) yesterday, the scenario for Bitcoin today, January 29, 2026, has become more defensive. The market is processing that there will be no more immediate rate cuts, which has cooled enthusiasm.
1. Current Situation: "Hangover" from the Fed
Price: Bitcoin is trading around $88,200, down 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
The Fed yesterday: As expected, they kept rates at 3.5% - 3.75%. However, Jerome Powell was cautious and did not promise cuts for March, which disappointed those hoping for more liquidity soon.
Contrast with Gold: While Bitcoin is stagnant, gold has broken records surpassing $5,500, indicating that institutional capital prefers traditional refuge at this moment of geopolitical uncertainty.
2. Scenarios for today
Scenario A: Consolidation (60% probability)
Bitcoin remains in the range $87,000 - $89,500.
Sentiment: Boredom and caution. The market needs to "digest" the Fed's message. Volumes in ETFs may be moderate today after the outflows recorded yesterday in funds like IBIT.
Scenario B: Support Breakdown (25% probability)
If selling pressure continues, the price could seek $86,500.
Key factor: If the outflow data from ETFs today shows that institutions continue to withdraw capital, we could see a quick "retest" of $86,000. This is the average entry level for many ETF buyers, so its defense is vital.
Scenario C: Surprise Recovery (15% probability)
A rebound towards $90,500.
Key factor: This would only occur if there is positive news about crypto legislation in the U.S. (which is under discussion today) or if the dollar continues to lose strength globally.
Sentiment summary: The community has shifted from "Greed" to a state of "Watchful Waiting." The narrative of "Bitcoin as digital gold" is under test as physical gold shines brighter today.
