XRP has started 2026 trading sideways below $2, but on-chain data shows large investors quietly accumulating. Since the beginning of the year, 42 new “millionaire” wallets — addresses holding at least 1 million XRP — have appeared, suggesting whales are building positions during price weakness.

Technically, XRP still looks fragile. The price remains well below its 200-day moving average, and risk-adjusted return metrics like the Sharpe Ratio indicate a low-reward, range-bound environment. Momentum indicators point more to consolidation than a confirmed breakout, keeping many traders cautious.

At the same time, exchange supply is sitting near multi-year lows, meaning fewer tokens are readily available to sell. Historically, shrinking exchange balances have preceded price increases, but current trading volume is still too weak to confirm a sustained trend. This raises the possibility of either a sharp move higher if demand returns — or failed rallies if buying pressure doesn’t follow through.

On the utility side, activity on the XRP Ledger is picking up. DEX transaction counts have surged to a 13-month high on a sustained basis, signaling growing on-chain usage rather than short-term spikes. This provides a more fundamental support base for XRP beyond speculation and legal headlines.

Looking ahead, 21Shares sees XRP’s 2026 performance hinging on two main drivers: ETF-driven demand and real-world adoption within the Ripple ecosystem. With exchange reserves low and ETF inflows strong, supply could tighten further. Meanwhile, growth in RLUSD stablecoin usage and rising DeFi activity on XRPL point to expanding network utility.

Based on these factors, 21Shares models a 2026 peak price of $2.45 in a base case, $2.69 in a bullish scenario, and $1.60 in a bearish one.#ClawdbotSaysNoToken #PreciousMetalsBoom #USIranStandoff