Shared this few hours ago while it was 83k and now its already happening dump to 81k,
Looks like it followed the wave iv scenario
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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Updates..
The move to 97,924 can be interpreted in few different but structurally valid ways. Here are both scenarios phrased clearly and cleanly: 🔹 Scenario 1 — It was Wave B of a larger A-B-C correction If we count 126,200 → 80,600 as Wave A, then the rally to 97,924 is a shallow Wave B (≈38.2% retracement). Because B did not reach the 50–61.8% zone, this suggests a weak B wave, which typically leads to a strong Wave C down. Implication: Wave C would likely extend to at least equality with Wave A. Wave A length = 45,600 Projected C target = 97,924 − 45,600 = 52,324 ➡ This scenario expects a much deeper decline toward the 52K area ➡ Structure = A–B–C correction (bearish larger degree) 🔹 Scenario 2 — It was nested correction aka wave B inside of Wave IV from that unfinish correction??? If we instead count the structure as a 5-wave impulse from 126,200, then: Wave I = 126,200 → 102,000 Wave II = 102,000 → 116,400 Wave III = 116,400 → 80,600 (extended) Wave IV = 80,600 → 97,924 In this case, the move to 97,924 is a complex Wave IV correction. ✔ Wave IV retraced ~50% of Wave III (not Typical but i guess sometimes ITS happen as this is wild market with some exceptions???) Wave III range = 116,400 → 80,600 = 35,800 50% retracement = 80,600 + 17,900 = 98,500 area Price topped at 97,924, which is very close to the 50% retracement zone ✔ Wave IV often: Moves sideways and overlaps internally Contains smaller A-B-C swings inside it Takes longer in time Looks like multiple “B waves” during its development All of those match the current behavior. Implication: The market is now in Wave V down, which is typically weaker after an extended Wave III. Projected Wave V targets: Weak V (0.618 × Wave I) → ≈ 82.9–83K Normal V (equal to Wave I) → ≈ 73.7K ➡ This scenario expects one more drop, but not as deep as 52K ➡ Structure = 1-2-3-4-5 impulse completing a correction What Happens If Price Stops at 83K? If price declines and finds strong support near 83K: ✔ That fits a weak Wave V ✔ That completes a full 5-wave impulse down from 126,200 ✔ That means the entire larger correction is finished After a completed 5-wave structure, market typically begins a larger degree reversal or new bullish cycle Otherwise, we will lead into 73K If price fails to hold 83K and continues lower: Wave I length = 24,200 97,924 − 24,200 = 73,724 ✔ This would still be a valid Wave V completion ✔ Structure remains a 5-wave impulse, just with a deeper final leg So a move to 73K does NOT automatically mean Wave C to 52K It can still be the final Wave V flush before reversal So we will see which one is the true one. #USIranStandoff $BTC
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