Post
鸡父
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Starting around 12 o'clock, many friends have been asking me about my views on the market, and I have been responding one after another until now. Then I will share my thoughts in the square:
1. I completed my last round of buying at the positions of $BTC 85555, $ETH 2814, $SOL 118.1.
2. How to deal with the orders in hand is indeed a problem. According to the original plan, it should be to exit at 86000 during the rebound. However, I personally feel that I need to observe a few more indicators.
1- Will there be a new low before and after the US stock market closes (3-5 PM) until noon tomorrow? If so, what will the position be?
2- Where will the weekly closing be?
3- Where will the monthly closing be?
The reason for further observation is also many
1- I noticed that when Bitcoin hits a new low on a small scale, Ethereum and SOL have some resistance to a certain extent.
2- According to historical experience, after a government shutdown in the United States, the US stock market will rise for at least a week.
3- The monthly line will close on Saturday, the weekly line will close on Monday, and February 2 is a full moon; these critical time points are all overlapping.
3.1- Regarding the full moon, the periods before and after a new full moon have always been relatively valuable turning points. For example, 10.07, 10.21, 11.05, 11.20.
4- A very critical question is whether the 97900 on January 14 is the starting point of a weekly drop? If so, will it drop further for 3 months from 97900? I think that is unrealistic.
4.1- I reviewed all bear markets in history, and the start of a weekly drop has occurred after the Spring Festival.
2022 Spring Festival: February 1, weekly drop started on: March 28
2018 Spring Festival: February 16, weekly drop started on: March 5
2014 Spring Festival: January 31, weekly drop started on: February 1
This year's Spring Festival: February 14, weekly drop started on: ?
5- For friends with high leverage, if you want to reduce leverage, the reference positions I provide are 89400/91000.
1. I completed my last round of buying at the positions of $BTC 85555, $ETH 2814, $SOL 118.1.
2. How to deal with the orders in hand is indeed a problem. According to the original plan, it should be to exit at 86000 during the rebound. However, I personally feel that I need to observe a few more indicators.
1- Will there be a new low before and after the US stock market closes (3-5 PM) until noon tomorrow? If so, what will the position be?
2- Where will the weekly closing be?
3- Where will the monthly closing be?
The reason for further observation is also many
1- I noticed that when Bitcoin hits a new low on a small scale, Ethereum and SOL have some resistance to a certain extent.
2- According to historical experience, after a government shutdown in the United States, the US stock market will rise for at least a week.
3- The monthly line will close on Saturday, the weekly line will close on Monday, and February 2 is a full moon; these critical time points are all overlapping.
3.1- Regarding the full moon, the periods before and after a new full moon have always been relatively valuable turning points. For example, 10.07, 10.21, 11.05, 11.20.
4- A very critical question is whether the 97900 on January 14 is the starting point of a weekly drop? If so, will it drop further for 3 months from 97900? I think that is unrealistic.
4.1- I reviewed all bear markets in history, and the start of a weekly drop has occurred after the Spring Festival.
2022 Spring Festival: February 1, weekly drop started on: March 28
2018 Spring Festival: February 16, weekly drop started on: March 5
2014 Spring Festival: January 31, weekly drop started on: February 1
This year's Spring Festival: February 14, weekly drop started on: ?
5- For friends with high leverage, if you want to reduce leverage, the reference positions I provide are 89400/91000.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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