The live broadcasts in the past few weeks have almost worn my mouth out—empty, still empty. Some people listened and slept soundly last night; some, skeptical, might already be eating noodles in the dark.

This is not hindsight but a blatant premeditation.

Old Chen has long deconstructed the logic: In the first quarter, the Federal Reserve's knife will not be sheathed. Simply put, the current interest rate level has significantly retreated from its high, but it remains in a restrictive range and has paused further cuts. They say without concessions, the market shouldn't expect to breathe easily.

The reason that the Federal Reserve might change to a more hawkish chair last night is indeed valid, but it's just something to listen to. To quickly incite emotions, there must be large funds leading the way, and information dissemination takes time. This means that this round of decline has long been predetermined, merely finding a sudden news event that retail investors can accept as an excuse.

What should we do now?

The current market is focused on Trump's upcoming announcement of the Federal Reserve chair nominee, entering a moment of policy blind box. Whether the nominee is a "close confidant" impacting independence, or a "hawk" triggering long-term tightening associations, the result will severely disrupt global liquidity expectations. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with the U.S. stock market, this directly amplifies the selling pressure.

So during this phase, do not blindly catch the falling knife.

Any relevant news will cause sudden tremors in the market. Before the key nomination is announced, market sentiment will remain tense. The real bottoming out requires waiting until this largest short-term uncertainty is resolved. Pay attention to the resonance point between information fluctuations and key technical support.

Follow Old Chen to see through the cycle and calmly mine for gold. #下任美联储主席会是谁？