Finally, we're at the end of January, and as you know, everyone is calling for a bearish month for crypto. The history is there, but you know we don't just listen to anyone. Let's look at the chart and see what's really happening.
First, let's go back to what I said last time. We talked about that weekly bearish momentum and I said it was a real setup. It played out and Bitcoin dropped from near $89,300 down to where we are now, a move of about 9%.
So what's now?
Looking at the structure, $BTC is still fine on the higher timeframe. It will stay bullish as long as we hold above a major level. Let's drop it down and look.
On the weekly, Bitcoin is sitting right in a key demand zone, and it's also testing a major support level from back on November 2nd, around $80,600.
This is a big area.
If you were not bearish on the way down from $89k, then this is not the area to flip bearish. In my opinion, this is the zone where you should be looking for buy setups. I will be doing that.
The weekly structure is still holding, and I don't want to bet against the trend here.
Maybe the bottom is already in.
Price tapped this demand zone and swept down toward that $80,600 support.
If not, I still think Bitcoin finds a floor around these levels, and we will likely see it move higher from here.
Now, the daily chart is the one to watch. It is clearly bearish right now. Price has broken its structure.
I want to see it reclaim $83,000 and hold above it. Only then will I feel confident about turning bullish on this timeframe.
As long as price stays below $83,000, the bears remain in control. Personally, I don't want to see price spend too much time under this level.
A quick reclaim this week would be ideal. The quicker, the better.
Everyone is the "January Dump" caller right now.
Most traders are expecting a bearish month, but they ignore that the market can price things in before they happen.
Bitcoin has already been dropping hard for days, from $89,300 down to $81,118.
I'm not saying it's certain, but it's possible that a lot of January's bearishness is already priced in.
That's it for this update.
I am more into buying than selling into this weekly demand and historical support zone near $80,600.
I don't really care what people are expecting.
I am ready to buy their fear if we see some more discount. January is almost over. We will see where it ends.
Let me know your thoughts.