Recently, a signal that is easily overlooked but actually affects the overall situation has emerged —
According to recent reports, Trump has hinted in public that he will nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and he himself expects Warsh to be more inclined to cut interest rates than Powell.
This information sounds like a 'sleight of hand',
but what is truly worth pondering is not the names, but the direction of market expectations regarding monetary policy changes.
Let's first break down a layer of logic:
Current Chairman Powell has no inclination to cut interest rates.
In the past few meetings, the Federal Reserve has been very cautious regarding interest rates, and 'no rate cuts' has become the norm. Market expectations for rate cuts have also been suppressed to very low levels.
Trump names Warsh as potentially bringing a shift
Historically, Warsh has shown a preference for accommodative policies more clearly than Powell, which means that if he really takes office, the market's expectation of 'the rate cut window opening' will reignite.
For an extremely sensitive market structure like today, this expectation itself—
It may influence price movements even before actual rate cuts.
This is because:
Funds will not wait for official statements
It has already started pricing in 'before it possibly happens'.
The market may first factor in this signal of 'expected easing of liquidity' into prices, rather than waiting for the official announcement of 'we are going to cut rates'.
BTC, a high beta asset, is particularly sensitive to liquidity news
When rate expectations shift from 'holding firm' to 'opening up', BTC is no longer simply driven by emotions, but is incorporated into the larger issue of global risk appetite reset.
The market is not waiting for data but is betting on leading expectations.
Many people are still focused on the rate decision itself,
what really needs to be watched is the market's probability judgment on the policy direction after Warsh potentially takes office.
because when liquidity expectations shift,
BTC will not just tell you 'up or down',
It will tell you—whether funds are willing to reallocate towards risk assets.
So the key now is not just a statement of 'he will cut rates',
Rather, it is the intensity of the market's interpretation of 'he may cut rates'.
When the market starts to bet on the probability of the 'dovish faction coming to power' in advance, what truly changes the trend is not the action itself, but the speed at which expectations lead.
