• When analyzing the market, I start from the premise that there are different versions of the same price, mainly defined by the market context and recent price history. Depending on the version, I decide what to do and how much capital to allocate: long, short, and/or stay liquid.
In the present analysis, I compare Ethereum at 2.7K in July 2025 vs. 2.7K in January 2026:
• ETH 2.7K - July 2025 Context:
1) BTC’s price showed buying strength, closing above the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, the SMA50 weekly timeframe, and the AVWAP Fourth Halving.
2) ETH ETF holdings were increasing. It marked the first leg of its institutional narrative.
3) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was pending a vote in the House of Representatives and had bipartisan support.
4) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.43 and ≥100K ETH = +0.75. Whales had a comfortable unrealized profit cushion.
• ETH 2.7K - January 2026 Context:
1) BTC’s price is showing selling pressure, closing below the SMA50 weekly timeframe and the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, which has recently acted as resistance. Now, it is trading below the AVWAP Fourth Halving. The weekly close on Sunday is important.
2) Also, during this bull cycle, on-chain data show that this latest drop was the most painful for Bitcoiners.
3) ETH ETF holdings have been declining since their October ATH.
4) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was delayed and recently advanced in the Senate Agriculture Committee on a party-line vote. Democrats expressed concerns over the lack of provisions against political profiteering.
5) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.15 (-65%) and ≥100K ETH = +0.38 (-49%). Whales’ unrealized profit cushion has shrunk significantly compared to July 2025.
• It can be observed that ETH at 2.7K in July 2025 represented a version of this price level where taking a short-to-medium-term long had a relatively good probability of success, but today the options that seem most reasonable to me are: long-term DCA buys, staying liquid, and/or taking shorts.
Written by _OnChain
