Bitcoin broke decisively below its 100-week simple moving average at $85,000 on Thursday, January 29th—a critical support level that had held for nine consecutive weeks since November. The crash sent $BTC as low as $81,314 before stabilizing near $82,000, triggering $1.7 billion in total crypto liquidations with Bitcoin accounting for $786 million.
Analysts are now watching three potential downside targets. The nearest is $74,000-$75,000, where Bitcoin found support during April 2025's tariff-driven selloff. If that breaks, attention shifts to the 200-week exponential moving average currently sitting between $57,000-$68,000—a level that historically serves as a long-term trend separator between bull and bear markets. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted these deeper levels "have often been great value areas for long-term buys."
The most extreme bearish scenario targets $53,000, retesting September 2024 lows, though this would require a 40% correction from recent peaks. The breakdown occurred amid Microsoft's 12% stock crash, nearly $1 billion in ETF outflows, hawkish Fed policy, and geopolitical tensions pushing capital into gold at record highs above $4,400.