Reasons for the gold crash: a conspiracy about gold, where the ups and downs rely entirely on Trump#黄金暴跌 #XAUT
In fact, this is because when gold exceeds $5300, the overall market value surpasses that of all U.S. Treasury securities, leading to systemic selling. Everyone is pondering one question: Will gold become so significant that it is 'not allowed to continue attracting global safe-haven funds'? Under the current system: Gold ≈ non-sovereign, non-credit, zero-yield asset U.S. Treasuries ≈ the largest and most core risk-free asset globally. Once the market value of gold structurally surpasses U.S. Treasuries, it is no longer a market issue but a financial order issue. The role of U.S. Treasuries is to provide the largest pool of assets that can earn interest, be collateralized, and traded, absorbing the global pool of funds and maintaining the circulation of the dollar.
If gold is 'worth more' than U.S. Treasuries, it means that global safe-haven funds have completely abandoned the credit system, and the dollar would be hollowed out. This is a state that the system does not allow to happen during a non-acute financial collapse. Therefore, once the market value of gold approaches that of U.S. Treasuries, they will definitely 'expand' to suppress gold again. If the gold price continues to rise sharply after $5300, what does it mean? The market no longer trusts U.S. Treasuries, no longer trusts the dollar, no longer trusts any sovereign credit, and the corresponding scenario is not 'Gold Bull Market 2.0' but 'Global Financial Order Reset.' In such a scenario: multiple stock crashes, bond market disorder, capital controls, and financial freezes must occur before you can 'smoothly sell gold.' Thus, in a 'normal world line,' the market is more likely to choose to trade repeatedly around $5300 and inflate infinitely.
Gold can rise, but it cannot become so significant that it replaces U.S. Treasuries as the world's safest asset; once the gold price rises to a level that poses a 'physical threat to the dollar system,' it is no longer a holding signal but a liquidation signal.