If the US dollar were to lose its global reserve status, $XAU gold’s valuation framework changes dramatically. Based on simple monetary ratios, global M0 divided by official gold reserves implies roughly $39,000 per ounce, while global M2 implies a far higher $184,000 per ounce—a purely theoretical ceiling that assumes full monetization and is historically unrealistic.
Some countries, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, already hold enough gold to support partial currency backing. China, however, would need hundreds of millions more ounces to credibly peg its currency.
These ratios are upper bounds, not price targets. Gold only approaches them under major regime shifts—precisely why central banks continue accumulating gold as monetary trust erodes.