In early 2026, this wave of Bitcoin market trends has undoubtedly created noticeable pressure for those paying attention. After surging to a high of $97,932 in mid-January, the price has been on a downward trajectory, especially with the arrival of the 'Black Storm' in the early hours of February 1, where it plummeted more than 6% in a single day, hitting a low of $78,320, and now stabilizing around $78,800. In just over half a month, it has dropped nearly $20,000, a decline of over 20%. Coupled with the patterns of previous bull-bear transitions and various technical indicators signaling the current state, there is no doubt that Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market cycle. This is not a short-term fluctuation illusion, but rather the result of trends, capital flows, and external environmental factors working together.
Today, I will slowly talk with everyone about technical indicators and operational strategies.
1. Why is it said that we are in a bear market? This is not a guess.
There are quite obvious patterns to follow in Bitcoin's bull and bear markets. Looking back at the three bull markets ending in 2013, 2017, and 2021, the declines exceeded 70%. This time, from the high point of $110,000 in May 2025, although it has already dropped more than $30,000, the overall decline is still less than 30%, indicating it has not yet fully dropped. More critically, the plunge on February 1 directly broke through the three key supports of $85,000, $82,000, and $80,000, forming a 'waterfall-style break' and a volume collapse—trading volume increased by 50% compared to the previous day, completely releasing the bearish momentum.
The external environment is also not optimistic. In early 2026, geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe are rising, plus the Federal Reserve chairman nominee Walsh, nominated by Trump, advocates for 'monetary discipline,' which may continue the tight monetary policy, not good news for risk assets. From a technical perspective, the Ichimoku cloud chart on the weekly level has already shown a 'cloud cross,' which has historically corresponded to deep corrections. Additionally, the price has been consistently below the 365-day moving average (around $99,900) and the 200-day moving average (about $100,300). These two long-term moving averages are strong resistances in a bear market, and being unable to stabilize below them indicates that the market has indeed not escaped weakness. Chain and funding data show that Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with $817 million flowing out in a single day on January 30. The BlackRock-affiliated IBIT fund also saw outflows of $528 million, indicating that institutional funds are retreating. At the same time, over 420,000 investors across the network have faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount reaching $2.574 billion, with over 90% of liquidated positions being long positions, clearly showing that retail investors have been 'harvested' by institutions.
2. Several key technical indicators are all saying 'the bear market has arrived.'
Judging a bear market cannot be based solely on price; it must be verified in conjunction with technical indicators. The following commonly used indicators are currently showing a collective bearish outlook, let's discuss them one by one:
(1) MACD: Bears are still gaining strength.
The MACD indicator needs no further introduction, as it is commonly used. Currently, on the daily chart, the DIF and DEA lines are resting below the zero axis, and the green energy bars have not only not shrunk but have instead continued to expand with the plunge, indicating that the bearish strength has not yet been exhausted. On the 4-hour chart, the previously occasional short-term momentum contraction has long been broken, and it is now completely dominated by bears, unable to form an effective golden cross, and the price has been consistently held down by short-term moving averages, making it impossible to have the strength to rebound. It is also important to note that the 1-hour chart showed a 'top divergence' even before the plunge—prices slightly increased while the energy bars turned green, which now appears to be a warning signal for the plunge.
(2) Bollinger Bands: The lower band cannot hold, directly breaking.
The Bollinger Bands can visually show trends and volatility. Currently, on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands have opened downwards, with the price not only breaking the lower band but also pulling it further down. The previously mentioned support at $86,000 has long been broken, and the current lower band is approximately at $80,520, while the price has fallen to $78,800, completely departing from the normal range of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the downward trend has entered an accelerated phase. The 4-hour level is even more exaggerated, with the Bollinger Bands opening wider, the upper band at $94,493, the middle band at $87,506, and the price near the bottom lower band, with all the space in between being resistance, making it extremely difficult to rebound.
(3) RSI: Oversold and not rebounding, bulls are too weak.
RSI is an indicator of strength. Currently, the daily RSI has dropped to 26.8, and the 4-hour RSI is even worse, with RSI(6) only at 14.1 and RSI(12) at just 19.9, all in the oversold zone (below 30). Even when reaching the oversold zone, there has been no significant rebound, not even touching the strong dividing line at 50, indicating that the bulls are indeed lacking in strength. During rebounds, volume is also decreasing, and no one is willing to spend money to buy, making it impossible for prices to rise. This 'oversold and not rebounding' situation is too common in bear markets, further indicating that the market is genuinely weak.
(4) KDJ and SKDJ: Low-level fluctuations with no signs of reversal.
Both KDJ and SKDJ indicators are currently at low levels. On the daily chart, KDJ has already formed a death cross, with all three lines below 20 in the oversold zone. Although there are occasional small rebounds causing the candlestick to turn, the D line and J line are still pointing down, failing to form a golden cross. This situation in a bear market indicates weak consolidation, not a reversal. SKDJ is even more exaggerated, with the slow K line and D line hovering around 15, unable to break through even 30. Clearly, no one is willing to buy continuously. Both indicators suggest that the short-term may stabilize slightly, but for the trend to reverse, there is still a long way to go.
(5) ROC: The decline is becoming stronger and shows no signs of stopping.
ROC measures the speed of price changes. In simple terms, it is (current price - price some time ago) ÷ price some time ago × 100. If the value is negative and continues to decline, it indicates that the drop is getting more severe. Currently, on the daily chart, ROC has been negative for 21 consecutive days, with the latest value around -18.5, more than double the previous -8.7, and it continues to decline, showing no signs of reversing, indicating that the downward momentum is still increasing.
Looking at different periods, ROC at the 4-hour level has dropped to -22, setting a recent new low. Even with a short-term rebound, it cannot surpass the zero axis and will quickly drop back; the weekly ROC has fallen directly from positive to -12.3, setting a new low for the past 6 months. This indicates that the medium to long-term downward trend has already been established. There have been previous instances of 'weekly ROC being negative + daily ROC continuing downwards,' and each time this occurred, Bitcoin adjusted weakly for 1-3 months, and it's happening again now, with a more severe drop, confirming the judgment of the bear market.
3. In a bear market, don't panic; these two things can be done.
When facing a bear market, the most taboo action is blind bottom fishing or panic selling. Based on previous experience, there are two things worth doing that can both control risk and gradually lay out positions:
(1) Follow AHR999 for dollar-cost averaging, no need to guess the bottom.
The AHR999 indicator is a "magic tool" for dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, as it reflects the deviation between price and valuation. Following it for dollar-cost averaging means you don't have to worry about when the bottom is. How to operate specifically? In simple terms, when AHR999 is less than 0.45, buy a bit more; between 0.45-1.2, dollar-cost average normally; above 1.2, don't buy, or even reduce a bit. Currently, as the price has fallen to $78,800, AHR999 has dropped to about 0.65, still within the suitable range for dollar-cost averaging. Everyone can buy a little fixed amount weekly or monthly, spreading out purchases to avoid losing too much from buying at a high point.
In a bear market, price fluctuations are large, and it's too difficult to catch the bottom at the lowest point. This time, it only took a few days for the price to drop from $88,000 to $78,800, and no one can predict where the bottom is. Dollar-cost averaging is a rational approach of 'being greedy when others are fearful,' gradually buying to lower costs, and when the market warms up, returns will naturally come. But remember, dollar-cost averaging requires long-term persistence; don't stop just because of a short-term price drop, and don't invest all your money at once.
(2) Wait for two signals to add positions precisely and optimize costs.
In addition to dollar-cost averaging, you can also wait for key technical signals to add positions, which can make costs more efficient. Mainly look for two signals: MACD golden cross under water and price stabilizing on the lower Bollinger Band.
The MACD golden cross under water occurs when DIF and DEA form a golden cross below the zero axis. Although this signal is not as reliable as the golden cross above the zero axis, in a bear market, this signal often indicates a short-term rebound or that a stage bottom is approaching. However, it is important to note that when a golden cross occurs, it is best if the trading volume also increases, as this indicates that more buyers are entering, thus increasing the probability of a rebound; if there is no volume, it could just be a 'bull trap,' so be cautious.
Another signal is when the price tests the lower Bollinger Band and stabilizes. The price has already broken below the lower band, which is an extreme situation. Wait for the subsequent price to rebound and retest the lower band (currently around $80,520, which will fluctuate with the market), and if a long lower shadow or doji candlestick appears alongside the RSI moving up from the oversold zone, then it can be a good time to add a small position. Additionally, according to wave theory, Bitcoin may currently be in the C wave downtrend, with target levels possibly in the $72,000-$75,000 range. When the aforementioned signals appear, it will also be a good opportunity to add positions.
(3) Look at trading volume: only when it stabilizes is it a real stabilization.
Whether it's dollar-cost averaging or adding positions, trading volume must be considered. The bottom of a bear market often sees trading volume shrink to the extreme, then gradually stabilizes—trading volume decreases as prices fall, and increases slowly during rebounds. If overall trading volume remains within a stable range, it indicates that most sellers have sold, and a temporary balance between buyers and sellers has been reached, signaling that the stage bottom has truly arrived.
Currently, the situation with Bitcoin is that trading volume increases during sharp declines and shrinks rapidly during rebounds, indicating that no one is willing to chase the rise, and it is not yet time to stabilize. Everyone needs to be patient; when price fluctuations decrease and daily trading volume returns to 80%-120% of the average level over the last 30 days (around $37.9 billion), along with the previously mentioned MACD golden cross under water or stabilization on the lower Bollinger Band, it will be a good time to add positions or dollar-cost average, as the risk will be lower and success rates higher.
4. Lastly, a few words: Rationality is more important than anything else in a bear market.
The bear market for Bitcoin is not just a simple decline, but a market adjustment of valuation and emotional release. Currently, various technical indicators and funding data are saying 'the bear market has arrived.' Everyone should not hold onto a lucky mentality and must treat it rationally.
For those looking to hold Bitcoin long-term, a bear market is actually a good time to accumulate chips. Follow AHR999 for dollar-cost averaging, gradually building positions; then wait for key technical signals to add positions precisely and optimize costs. But remember, no indicator or strategy can 100% avoid risks. For example, some miners' break-even prices are at $75,000. If prices continue to stay below this level, there may be more selling pressure, and dropping to $70,000 is not impossible. Everyone should devise a plan that suits their own risk tolerance and available funds, and should not blindly follow others' operations, especially not use leverage to catch bottoms, or they may become the next to face liquidation.
From a long-term perspective, the scarcity of Bitcoin and the allocation demand in global financial markets have not changed much. The adjustments in a bear market have instead made the entry prices more attractive. As long as one analyzes rationally and grasps the timing, long-term gains can be achieved in the alternating bull and bear markets. What needs to be done now is to control positions, maintain patience, and not be thrown off by short-term declines.
