Recently, Bitcoin has fallen below $76,000, and the market is filled with anxiety. Some are shouting "the bull market is over," while others are calling it a "great buying opportunity"—but what truly determines where the bottom is may not be technical indicators, but rather the electricity bills miners face every day.
Since the halving in 2024, miners' income has been cut in half, and shutdown prices have been passively raised. Nowadays, the shutdown cost for efficient mining farms (like the Antminer S21 paired with low-cost hydroelectric power) is around $48,000 to $58,000, while the actual break-even point for many mid-efficiency mining machines is approaching the range of $68,000 to $72,000. Once prices remain below this range, hash rate clearance will accelerate, instead forming a natural buffer—because no one is willing to operate at a loss for an extended period.
More critically, the on-chain signals: the current BTC balance on CEX exchanges has not significantly increased, indicating that selling pressure primarily comes from leveraged long positions being liquidated, rather than long-term holders cutting losses. This suggests that the market's reluctance to sell is still present, and once prices approach the miners' cost area, selling will quickly dry up.
In summary, $68,000 is not only where the 200-week moving average lies, but also the psychological barrier for the entire network's hash rate and cost structure. If it truly drops to this area and stabilizes, then it is likely to be the "golden pit" of this adjustment. After all, in the world of cryptocurrency, true bottoms are never forged by fear, but rather determined by whether countless mining machines are still willing to continue operating to cast their vote.
$BTC
