$BTC
| Macro Warning Signal Appearing Again
A rare and concerning signal has just surfaced on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, something we last saw back in 2018.
BTC has now printed four consecutive red monthly candles. Historically, this structure is uncommon and has only appeared during periods of prolonged downside pressure. The last occurrence was August 2018, right before a deep and extended bear phase unfolded.
Back then, markets had a cushion. The Federal Reserve was quietly expanding its balance sheet, injecting roughly $40B per month, helping stabilize risk assets despite weakening sentiment.
This time, conditions are different.
As tax season approaches, liquidity is expected to tighten rather than expand. Balance sheet support is fading, and markets are increasingly sensitive to policy direction. On top of that, growing expectations around a more hawkish Fed leadership direction have added pressure, with tighter monetary policy historically favoring a stronger dollar and weighing on crypto.
Market participants are beginning to whisper about a scenario where downside risks were anticipated well in advance. The narrative is shifting from growth and momentum toward preservation and caution.
Think of it this way: The market soundtrack is slowing down. From high-energy rock to R&B, and eventually to something quieter and heavier. When the music slows, volatility becomes choppier, trends stretch longer, and participation thins out.
This does not mean panic. It means prepare.
Crypto winters are not chaotic every day. In fact, the most predictable phase of the cycle is a slow, grinding downtrend. That is where capital preservation, patience, and selective positioning matter most.
If stepping aside makes sense, do it. If reducing exposure helps you think clearer, that’s strength, not weakness.
This phase rewards discipline, not excitement.
Stay sharp.#WhenWillBTCRebound #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection