Bitcoin continues to decline, at a very delicate juncture: it aligns with the traditional "four-year cycle" of recession, and is also strongly driven by real factors such as macro policy changes and institutional capital flows.
Has the traditional four-year cycle rule failed?
Historically, Bitcoin usually peaks in the second year after halving, followed by about a year of bear market.
If we take the halving in April 2024 as a starting point, 2025 will indeed see a magnificent bull market.
According to the past script of "rising for a year, falling for a year," entering a cyclical correction in 2026 is expected. Currently, it has fallen below the $80,000 mark and has experienced four consecutive months of decline, which many technical analysts view as entering the cyclical "initial stage of the bear market."
Some believe this cycle has already "deformed." Due to the introduction of ETFs, the increase in 2025 has not shown the extreme "irrational exuberance" as before (on-chain indicators show retail enthusiasm is not as intense as in 2021). This makes the current decline more of a slow clearing after liquidity exhaustion rather than a "crash."
The current decline resembles a resonance between "cyclical regression" and "macroeconomic policy headwinds." For long-term holders, this is closer to the "reshuffling period" within the four-year cycle.
However, for traders expecting a short-term rebound, the current market lacks obvious upward momentum, and funds are shifting towards AI sectors and dollar assets.