Nigeria has been ranked sixth globally among countries contributing to real GDP growth in 2026, according to the most recent projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
IMF data shows that Nigeria is projected to contribute 1.5% of total global real GDP growth in 2026. This places Africa’s largest economy ahead of several advanced and emerging countries, including Germany, Brazil, and Indonesia – a notable marker of its expanding economic influence on the world stage.
China is forecast to remain the leading global growth driver, with a 26.6% share, followed by
India with 17.0%, and
The United States in third place at 9.9%.
Within the IMF’s top ten list for 2026, other projected contributors include
Indonesia (3.8%)
Türkiye (2.2%)
Saudi Arabia (1.7%)
Vietnam (1.6%)
Brazil (1.5%) and
Germany (0.9%),
with China and India together expected to account for over 43% of global expansion.
The data also highlights the continued dominance of the Asia-Pacific region, which is projected to contribute nearly half of total global growth, a trend reflecting broader shifts in economic momentum.
Nigeria’s ranking underscores its growing role among emerging market economies, even as it continues to confront domestic and international economic headwinds.
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This shift reflects a broader transformation in Africa’s economic landscape, driven by reforms such as currency adjustments, the removal of fuel subsidies, and efforts to stabilise public finances. These have supported stronger domestic demand despite ongoing structural challenges.
In previous outlooks, South Africa, long Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP, had ranked ahead of Nigeria in terms of contribution to global growth. However, power shortages, logistical bottlenecks, weak private investment and high unemployment have constrained South Africa’s growth prospects, reducing its relative share of global expansion.
The IMF projects that Nigeria’s real GDP will expand by 4.4% in 2026, compared with South Africa’s more modest forecast of 1.4% over the same period, helping to explain the shift in their relative contributions to global growth.
Despite these gains, key domestic indicators, including inflation, exchange-rate stability, real wages and employment, remain under pressure, and the IMF notes that its projections are conditional and subject to revision.
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