Bitcoin begins the first full week of February under increasing macroeconomic pressures, trading erratically below the $80,000 range as risk appetite weakens and markets prepare for key U.S. labor statistics.
The uncertainty around the economy is rising, ETF investments are becoming more cautious, and speculation about the Federal Reserve's next policy move is intensifying – this week's economic calendar could be crucial for the short-term BTC sentiment.
5 U.S. economic events are impacting Bitcoin and crypto sentiment this week
Every key figure from job postings to wages is closely monitored, as they influence expectations for rate cuts — still one of the most significant macro drivers affecting Bitcoin. Here are the key things to watch.
The JOLTS Job Openings report for December 2025, scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET, provides insight into labor demand by tracking the number of unfilled job openings in the U.S.
Economists interviewed by MarketWatch are expected to estimate that there are about 7.1 million job openings, nearly the same number as the revised 7.146 million from November. November's figure fell short of forecasts, indicating a cooling trend.
A weaker-than-expected reading would reinforce the narrative of softening labor markets and increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Historically, these conditions have supported Bitcoin, as looser monetary policy increases liquidity and favors riskier assets. Conversely, stronger-than-expected statistics could delay easing expectations and pressure the price of BTC.
In recent months, market reactions have been mixed. Following the November figures, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $91,000 before stabilizing.
As of this writing, the price of BTC is $75,908 amid general risk-averse sentiment and concerns caused by government shutdowns.
If the JOLTS reading remains weak and supports predictions of unemployment rising towards 4.5% in 2026, it may serve as a relief factor.
ADP Employment Report
The ADP employment report, typically released at 8:15 AM ET on Wednesday, estimates job growth in the private sector and often sets the tone for Friday's official employment figures.
Forecasts point to the creation of 45,000 new jobs in January, slightly above December's 41,000, while broader consensus approaches 47,000 jobs.
For Bitcoin, the direction is more important than the number. If the reading falls short of expectations, recession fears could strengthen and betting on earlier or deeper Fed rate cuts may accelerate – such conditions have traditionally favored BTC in liquidity-driven price rallies.
A strong report, on the other hand, indicates labor market resilience and reduces the urgency of easing expectations, which could pressure cryptocurrency prices.
Previous mixed employment statistics did not immediately affect BTC, but later weak wage data accelerated the price rally towards $92,000.
Bitcoin's trading direction is now cautious due to ETF fund outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty, so a soft ADP reading could calm sentiment ahead of Friday's statistical release.
Initial unemployment claims
Initial unemployment claims for the week ending January 31 will be released at 8:30 AM ET, providing the most up-to-date view of labor market pressures. The data shows how many Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in that week.
Claims are expected to be 212,000, slightly more than the previous week's 209,000 — and that also exceeded forecasts.
Rising claims show the labor market is losing momentum, reinforcing dovish policy expectations and could support Bitcoin. However, if claims unexpectedly drop, hawkish fears may resurface and the upward potential for risky assets could remain limited.
Recent claims numbers have not generated lasting movements in BTC's price, but the price has been determined by a broader market sell-off.
However, as sentiment is close to extreme fear and unemployment is expected to rise in 2026, a significant positive surprise in the claims number could once again shift risk and reward in favor of Bitcoin.
U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls)
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the week's most important event. Forecasts suggest that 55,000 jobs will be created in January, unemployment will be at 4.4%, and wages will grow by 0.3% month-over-month. However, estimates vary widely – some experts expect as few as 32,000 new jobs.
Weak employment data would reinforce the Fed's basis for rate cuts in a cooling economy, which has previously triggered sharp Bitcoin price rallies.
In December, the job report fell short of expectations, and Bitcoin soon rose towards $92,000. However, a strong report could support a longer-lasting Fed pause and pressure the price of BTC, which has already slipped from recent highs due to deleveraging and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Revisions often add volatility, so Friday's numbers could determine Bitcoin's near-term direction. In markets where policy shifts are anticipated, even a small disappointment could be enough to trigger a relief rally.
Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to U.S. labor market data as traders reassess the direction of Fed policy. Strong numbers could limit gains, but a series of weak reports would reinforce easing expectations – and could shift the risk sentiment across the entire crypto market.
Here is a concise and clearly written version, with more compact logic, clearer stakes, and a newsworthy persuasive tone – without losing nuance or exaggerating impact.
Strategyn (MSTR) Q4 2025 earnings
The report will be released after the market closes on February 5, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET and will remain an important sentiment gauge for Bitcoin, as the company is the largest corporate holder of BTC.
The company now holds approximately 712,647 BTC, valued at approximately $53.65 billion at current prices, representing about 3.4% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy's exposure places its results directly at the crossroads of accounting perspectives and broader cryptocurrency market psychology.
In line with consensus expectations, Q4 earnings per share are anticipated to be around -$18.06, which is significantly wider loss than last year's -$3.20. This is largely due to fair value accounting write-downs related to Bitcoin's Q4 decline.
Revenue is expected to be between $117 million and $119 million, remaining nearly unchanged or slightly lower than last year. This suggests that the core business is still positioned alongside Bitcoin strategy as secondary.
If losses exceed expectations or if investors receive cautious comments regarding leverage, dilution, or capital structure, it could raise concerns about margin pressure if BTC drops further. This is particularly emphasized when prices move around MicroStrategy's estimate of an average purchase price of about $76,000.
Despite the company's Bitcoin holdings having no significant restrictions, negative publicity could still weigh on BTC's sentiment due to the perceived risk of forced selling.
However, there is no immediate liquidation risk associated with MicroStrategy's convertible bonds. If the company reaffirms its long-term belief, continues buying, or announces new fundraising plans, this could support the bulls' narrative of corporate Bitcoin acceptance.