Today (February 1, 2026), I opened the market software, and the market sentiment was bleak. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index was only 20, which is considered 'extreme fear'. The price of Plasma's token XPL was only around $0.12. Most people seeing this situation might first react with panic, cutting losses, or simply uninstalling the software.
But for me, this is precisely the best time for research. Because when the market's frenzy fades, you can see clearly who is swimming naked and who is solidly building tall buildings.
🔴 Noise: Coin prices and market sentiment
The short-term rise and fall of coin prices, the FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) from the community—these are all 'noise'. They are influenced by too many factors: macroeconomics, whale operations, market sentiment, and so on. If you only focus on these, it is easy to be led astray, chasing highs and lows, ultimately becoming a victim.
🟡 Signal: Real use cases and data
What is a "signal"? It refers to those indicators that can reflect the true value of a project. What I see is:
1. Stablecoin liquidity: Regardless of bull or bear markets, the global demand for stablecoin payments only increases. Cross-border e-commerce, freelancers, and users from developing countries need an inexpensive and fast channel to transfer value.
2. Solving real problems: The Gas fee issue of Ethereum and other mainstream public chains cannot be completely resolved in the foreseeable future. This gives specialists like Plasma, who focus on payments, a huge and ongoing market opportunity.
3. Sustainable economic model: The value capture of Plasma does not rely on the rise of coin prices, but is linked to on-chain transaction volume. Just like highway companies, the more traffic there is, the higher the income. This is a healthy business model that can withstand bull and bear markets.
🟢 Insight: Bear markets are the best learning periods
Buffett said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." The second half of this sentence does not mean that you should blindly buy the dip, but rather that when the market is calm, you have the time and energy to research those projects that have been wrongfully punished and have real value. When the price of a project is far below the value of the problems it can solve, the opportunity arises.
Insights that ordinary people can use:
Build your own "signal/noise" filter. In your watchlist, in addition to "price," you should add at least three indicators, such as "daily active addresses," "on-chain transaction counts," and "developer activity," etc. When prices fall, if these fundamental data points are steadily increasing, that may be a signal worth researching further. Conversely, if prices skyrocket but the fundamental data remains unchanged, you should be cautious. #Plasma $XPL @Plasma