Post
陈小艺
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Hey, let's talk about the recent market 'key contradiction': interest rate cut expectations and 'the last mile' of inflation—who is really leading Bitcoin?
To be honest, I personally hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I have been keeping an eye on macro changes. The following content is purely my personal thoughts and notes, and does not constitute investment advice. The market is always the teacher; let's exchange and learn together.
Recently, I've been chatting with a few seasoned traders. Everyone is saying 'interest rate cuts are bound to come,' but their actions are quite honest—volatility is increasing, and the divergence is obvious. This reminds me of a classic question: when the macro narrative and on-chain signals are at odds, which side should we pay attention to?
Many newcomers get excited when they hear 'inflation cooling' and 'interest rate cut expectations,' thinking the faucet will be turned on again, and the second wave of the bull market is coming soon. But reality is often more grinding—recently, the Federal Reserve frequently mentions one phrase: 'the last mile.' What does it mean? It may be relatively easy for inflation to drop from 8% to 4%, but getting from 4% to the 2% target may require more time and higher interest rates to sustain. It's like running the last few hundred meters of a long race; every step becomes more laborious.
Recently, I've been chatting with a few seasoned traders. Everyone is saying 'interest rate cuts are bound to come,' but their actions are quite honest—volatility is increasing, and the divergence is obvious. This reminds me of a classic question: when the macro narrative and on-chain signals are at odds, which side should we pay attention to?
Many newcomers get excited when they hear 'inflation cooling' and 'interest rate cut expectations,' thinking the faucet will be turned on again, and the second wave of the bull market is coming soon. But reality is often more grinding—recently, the Federal Reserve frequently mentions one phrase: 'the last mile.' What does it mean? It may be relatively easy for inflation to drop from 8% to 4%, but getting from 4% to the 2% target may require more time and higher interest rates to sustain. It's like running the last few hundred meters of a long race; every step becomes more laborious.
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