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$BTC Recently, many friends have been asking whether Bitcoin will drop 80% again this round. I'll be direct: if you're still looking at the 2026 market through the lens of 2017, you might miss this opportunity. We won't talk about beliefs, only data:
In 2011, it dropped from $33 to $2, a 94% retracement—there was almost no liquidity, and the community was purely self-entertaining.
· In 2013, it dropped from $1150 to $150, an 87% retracement—the exchanges were like temporary stages, collapsing at a touch.
· In 2017, it dropped from $19,000 to $3,200, an 84% retracement—from ICOs to air coins, plus extreme leverage, the bubble was destined to burst. #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
· $BNB In 2021, it dropped from $69,000 to $15,000, a 77% retracement.
Do you see the changes? The retracement magnitude is narrowing each round, and this is not a coincidence; the market structure has fundamentally changed:
First, the main holders have changed. Previously, it was retail investors and speculators; now it's ETFs, institutions, listed companies, and even national-level allocations. Given this chip structure, it's nearly impossible to see another 80% disorderly sell-off. #币安比特币SAFU基金
Second, the pricing logic has changed. Previously driven by emotions and speculation, now there are miner costs, institutional average entry prices, and continuous ETF inflows providing support. The bottom is no longer empty, but a layer upon layer of cost support. #币安比特币SAFU基金
Third, the way leverage is cleared has changed. Nowadays, the risk control in the derivatives market is stricter, liquidations happen faster, and settlements are more precise, greatly reducing the probability of a 'death spiral' type of cascading sell-off. #V神卖币
So back to the original question—under this new structure, do you really still think an 80% retracement will reoccur? The wealth opportunity in this round lies not in whether you dare to chase the rise, but in whether you dare to break old cognitions and re-understand the market.
$SOL Where do you think the limit of this round's retracement will be? What ordinary people need to do is not wait for a crash, but actively learn, rationally allocate, and grasp the essence amid change. #白宫加密会议
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