Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee stated that the cryptocurrency market is likely at a bottom or very close to it after the recent correction, despite ongoing volatility. The comment came as Bitcoin was trading at US$ 77.357, a 1.4% drop in 24 hours and an 11.8% decline over seven days. The movement occurs in a macro scenario of increased risk aversion, marked by strong capital rotation into precious metals and political uncertainties in the U.S.
The current correction adds to recent episodes of strong liquidation in Bitcoin, which pressured the market even without excessive systemic leverage. For Brazilian investors, BTC is traded near R$ 660.209, sensitive to the stability of the dollar against the real and the global market mood.
What is behind the market bottom thesis?
According to Lee, prices have fallen more than fundamentals would justify, as network metrics remain solid. He highlights the absence of excessive leverage and the resilience of on-chain activity as signs that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.
In Ethereum, the situation is more delicate in the short term. ETH is trading at US$ 2,265, with a 3.5% decline in 24 hours and a loss of over 22% in seven days. Despite this, Lee points out that active addresses and transactions remain high, although part of this increase is linked to 'address poisoning' attacks, which diminish the quality of the observed growth.
Technical analysis: key levels under observation
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin tests a relevant support at US$ 87,210, while immediate resistance is between US$ 89,241 and US$ 90,000. The daily RSI hovers around 34 points, indicating a condition close to oversold, while the MACD remains negative but with a loss of slope, signaling a possible deceleration of the downtrend.
Technical analysts observe the formation of a descending wedge pattern, whose projection points to a recovery towards the range of US$ 98,000 to US$ 101,000 if there is a breakout with volume. This scenario would gain strength if institutional selling pressure continues to ease, as recent outflows from crypto ETFs suggest, slowing to US$ 278 million in January.
Why metals and politics matter for crypto now
The macro backdrop weighs heavily. Gold and silver surged 37.4% and 106.9% in recent months before experiencing sharp corrections, with gold falling more than 9% in a single day. This rotation drained liquidity from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Moreover, uncertainty about the Federal Reserve and the American political agenda increases volatility. Historically, periods of transition in Fed leadership tend to generate market tests, which requires caution from Brazilian traders.
Risks and the counterpoint to the optimistic view
Despite the bottom thesis, the risk of new lows cannot be ruled out. Sentiment remains fragile, and the weakness of altcoins shows that the recovery is not broad. A clear breakout below US$ 87,000 could open the door for further declines.
On the other hand, February historically delivers an average return of 14.3% for Bitcoin. If the pattern repeats, investors in Brazil may see BTC/BRL approach the region of R$ 737 thousand, but only a consistent improvement in volume and institutional flow would confirm this scenario.
In summary, the market may be close to an inflection point, as suggested by Tom Lee, but the path remains dependent on macro conditions and technical confirmation. For Brazilian investors, the moment calls for discipline, risk management, and increased attention to key levels.
Technical projections for Bitcoin in February show a recovery bias, while estimates for BTC/BRL reinforce sensitivity to exchange rates. The global volatility scenario is also detailed in recent analyses regarding the simultaneous correction in metals and crypto.