The cryptocurrency market reacted this Monday (3) after a weekend marked by aggressive liquidations, with Bitcoin trading at $78,465, up 5.2% in 24h. The movement pulled the total market value to $2.7 trillion, an increase of 2.8% on the day. Despite the relief, the backdrop remains cautious, with investors still digesting macroeconomic risks and high volatility.
Large capitalization tokens accompanied the recovery. BNB rose 5.3% to $769, while Cardano advanced 7.2% to $0.2975 and Avalanche gained 5.3%, quoted at $10.09. Even so, the Crypto Fear & Greed index remains at 17 points, an extreme fear zone.
The stabilization occurs after one of the worst liquidation waves in Bitcoin since the end of 2025, reinforcing that the current movement is more of a technical breath than a confirmed reversal.
What explains the breath after the fall?
Between January 31 and February 2, liquidations exceeded $2 billion in multiple sessions, peaking at around $2.5 billion on the 1st. Most of it came from excessively leveraged long positions that were forced to close in a cascade during the low liquidity of the weekend.
This flow has lost strength. Data from CoinGlass shows that liquidations in 24 hours have dropped 44%, to approximately $401 million. With less automatic selling pressure, short-term buyers and longer-term investors managed to enter the market.
The total open interest in the crypto market also rose by 4%, to $110 billion, signaling a gradual return of risk appetite. For Brazilian traders, this indicates that the most acute deleveraging phase may be behind, at least in the short term.
Bitcoin tests decisive technical levels
Even with the daily rise, Bitcoin still accumulates a decline of about 12% for the week and a drop of almost 40% compared to the October peak, near $126,000. On the daily chart, the RSI rose to the region of 38 points, leaving the oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative, but with a loss of inclination, signaling weakening of the selling momentum.
The most relevant supports are in the range between $71,000 and $74,000, a region that coincides with the Fibonacci level of 0.618. Below that, the next support appears only at $64,000. On the upper side, immediate resistances are at $82,000 and $91,000, levels that need to be broken to validate a more consistent recovery.
In the institutional field, a positive point is the slowdown of outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. In January 2026, negative flows totaled only $278 million, well below the $1.09 billion in December and the $3.48 billion in November, suggesting less structural selling pressure.
What risks are still on the radar?
Analysts remain divided on the formation of a bottom. The market is still operating in a corrective phase, and some on-chain indicators point to the risk of a bear market if the main support is lost.
Moreover, the recent performance of altcoins occurs in a context of low broad participation. Data shows that only a small portion of projects maintains consistent gains, as highlighted in the weak performance of altcoins throughout the year.
For Brazilian investors, the message is clear: the relief reduces immediate pressure, but the confirmation of trend depends on the defense of supports and the evolution of the macro scenario. Meanwhile, February brings a positive historical trend for Bitcoin, with an average return of 14.3%, which keeps the dispute between consolidation and a new leg down open.
External references include analyses on price projections for February, market sentiment data, and detailed technical levels in graphical analysis comments.