From the high point of 126k at the end of 2025 → currently around 74k
📊 Key data
Drop: -41% (to date)
Duration: only 3–4 months (95–120 days)
Historical bear market comparison (ATH to lowest)
- 2011：-93%
- 2013–15：-87%
- 2017–18：-84%
- 2021–22：-77%
→ This time the amplitude is the shallowest and the duration is the shortest
Driving factors (no systemic black swans)
• Fed hawkish expectations + tech stock linkage
• Leverage liquidation + ETF outflow
• Macro risk-off
Phase conclusion
‘Deep mid-cycle correction’ in a bull market
Rather than a new Crypto Winter
Most likely path (60–70% probability)
Bottom: 65k–75k range
Time: H1 2026 bottoming
Follow-up: Q3–Q4 back to 100k+
Extreme panic = Layout window
Cash-rich and able to withstand another 10–20% drop, now is the opportunity 💎🙌
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #BearMarket
Data as of 2026.2.5
Drop 41%, only 3–4 months
Historical comparison overview
2011 → -93%
2013–15 → -87%
2017–18 → -84%
2021–22 → -77%
Now → -41% (shallowest)
The market is becoming more mature, both the drop and time are being compressed 📉→📈
#Bitcoin #Crypto
Summary of driving factors (multiple resonances, but no black swan)
1. Fed hawkish expectations + Strong dollar
2. Tech stocks/Nasdaq linked sell-off
3. Leveraged long positions wiped out + Liquidation wave
4. ETF net outflows + Institutional defense
Comparison with 2022 (Luna/FTX collapse) → This time is just 'natural deleveraging'
Current signals & positioning
- Fear & Greed: 15–20 (extreme fear)
- Leverage has been largely cleared
- Institutional bottom (long-term holding cost) + Policy bottom still in place
Conclusion: Healthy consolidation after the 2025 bull market
Similar to mid-cycle correction in May 2021 (drop 53% → rapid rebound)
Probability path
✅ Benchmark (60–70%): 65k–75k bottoming → H1 bottoming → New leg 100k+ in the second half
🚀 Optimistic (20%): 80k has bottomed, rebound in 2–3 months
😟 Pessimistic (10–20%): US stocks turning bearish only test 55–60k (low probability)
Time and panic have been historically compressed
Now is the lowest absorption window amid intense FUD 💎
#Crypto #BTC
