From my perspective, the recent partial government shutdown in the United States has ended, and I have a few direct personal judgments, all based on my own thoughts without any official color.
1. The downtime was so brief that it was almost unnoticeable, but the exposed cracks are actually quite deep.
It only lasted 4 days, federal employees received back pay, and the market didn't react much; cryptocurrency even had a slight rebound. On the surface, it seems like a minor episode. However, as someone who checks news and on-chain data daily, I can clearly feel that U.S. politics has now taken 'shutdown' as a routine negotiation tool. This is the second time in a few months (the last one lasted 43 days, which was even more outrageous), indicating that both parties have no intention of reconciling on core issues like immigration enforcement and fiscal appropriations; they are just kicking the can down the road.
This has added a layer of concern for me regarding the long-term stability of the dollar system and U.S. debt—it's not that an issue will arise immediately, but rather that 'controllable chaos' is becoming a daily state.
2. Regarding immigration enforcement, the Democrats have superficially made concessions, but in reality, they are just stalling for time.
The ICE shooting incident ignited public opinion, and the Democrats used this as leverage for reform, resulting in only a two-week extension from the Department of Homeland Security. Trump signed the bill to reopen, appearing to give the Republicans the upper hand, while border enforcement continues. But on February 13, discussions will resume, and the Democrats still have cards to play (this time some of them crossed party lines to support the bill, effectively giving Trump a way out).
I think this is not a solution but merely prolonging the line of conflict. The indirect impact of immigration issues on crypto is actually significant: enforcement continues to escalate, which may heighten risk aversion (Bitcoin is once again being touted as digital gold); if the reforms go too far, Trump may stir up the 'immigration crisis' again, and risk assets may get hammered. In short, another source of short-term noise has emerged.
3. For the crypto market, this reopening feels more like 'risk removal' rather than a new positive factor.
During the shutdown, the market didn't drop much, and after reopening, it saw a slight increase. I think this is mainly due to a sense of relief rather than an influx of new funds. The real drivers of prices are still the Federal Reserve's path, U.S. Treasury yields, and Trump's combination of tariffs and tax cuts.
This matter has made me more certain: cryptocurrency has now partially desensitized to the short-term political dramas in the U.S. Unless an extended shutdown causes real chaos in the payment systems, a four-day closure has minimal impact on the pricing of BTC/ETH. This is actually a small signal of the maturity of the crypto market—political risks are starting to be treated as background noise rather than the main driving force.
4. My most intuitive feeling is: thankfully, crypto is decentralized.
If I were still in the traditional financial system, facing a government shutdown, service interruptions, and uncertain funding, I would likely be quite irritated. However, assets on the blockchain, private keys, and wallets are completely indifferent to what Washington is arguing about.
This is also why I am increasingly focusing my energy on on-chain observations, real trading reviews, and capturing Alpha, rather than chasing macro political dramas every day. Politics can be observed, but don't go all in on emotions.
The end of this shutdown hasn't made me feel at ease; instead, it has made me more clear-headed—the 'controllable loss of control' in American politics will be the backdrop for the next few years. What we can do in the crypto space is not to be swayed by short-term noise, but to continue focusing on narratives, data, and real trading records. If there’s another blockage on February 13, I will likely still post a complaint in the square: here we go again? I'm already numb to this.
What do you think? Do you believe that political risks have already been absorbed by the market, or do you think there are more surprises ahead?