From my perspective, the topic of 'Is the altcoin season over?' is particularly hot right now, especially with the upcoming point in February 2026, where market sentiment is sharply divided. I've been checking on-chain data, looking at TOTAL3, monitoring the Altcoin Season Index, and pondering this question every day. Here are my personal views, considering the recent market situation and historical observations, reflecting my true thoughts.
1. From the current data, the classic 'broad altcoin season' has indeed cooled off, at least in the short term it's over.
The Altcoin Season Index on CoinMarketCap is currently around 34-39 (far below the confirmation line of 75), BTC dominance is steady at 58-59%, and TOTAL3 (the total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) is fluctuating in the range of 750B-760B, failing to effectively break through previous highs.
Over the past few months, altcoins have continuously underperformed against BTC, with many mid to large cap alts even oscillating near new lows, and meme coins and low market cap tokens are in disarray. Institutions like Wintermute have explicitly stated, 'alt season is dead', with liquidity concentrated in large caps and BTC/ETH, while retail funds have been drained by meme coin casinos like pump.fun.
In my own review: From the second half of 2025 to early 2026, the market is actually 'BTC season + selective alt pumps', not the 'rising tide lifts all boats' that everyone expects. So by traditional definition (most alts outperform BTC over 90 days), yes, the alt season is over, at least that broader sense of it is.
2. But 'over' does not equal forever dead; it has just transformed into a 'selective / utility season'.
I don't think the altcoins as a whole have completely cooled off; rather, the old version of alt season (where you could randomly throw money into low market caps and get 10x) is never coming back. The market in 2026 is more mature: institutions prefer BTC as 'digital gold', liquidity is not as rampant as before, and retail has also learned to be smarter, no longer all in on shitcoins.
Real narratives, utility, and growth in TVL are still rotating in tracks (AI agents, RWA, DePIN, certain L2 ecosystems, meme coins with communities). For example, the SOL ecosystem and some AI-related alts can occasionally run an independent trend.
My personal observation: Smart money on-chain hasn't entirely left; many are accumulating fundamentally sound projects at low levels. TOTAL3, although not exploding, hasn't collapsed below the cycle low either, structurally it is still building momentum (some see it as the end of a multi-year compression). If the Federal Reserve truly signals QE in 2026, or if regulations become clearer (like the Clarity Act), liquidity loosening could lead to this batch of 'rooted' altcoins possibly having their own small seasons, even more intense than in 2021 (due to a low base + institutional participation).
3. Why do I feel there is still hope in 2026, rather than it being completely over?
- Historical cycle: Altseason from 2017-2021 often erupted 1-1.5 years after halving; now it has only been 1.5 years since the 2024 halving, so we are not yet at peak. Many analysts consider 2026 as a potential window (early/mid 2026 or selective).
- Macro tailwind: If small-cap US stocks (Russell 2000) continue to breakout, the crypto risk-on sentiment will follow. The ALT/BTC ratio is extremely oversold, and some long-term signals from RSI/MACD are turning bullish.
- Market sentiment: Now the louder the voices saying 'alts are dead' get, the more it resembles the despair at the end of 2022, when it rebounded after such cries. FOMO has not returned, indicating we have not yet reached the euphoria stage.
But the premise is: don't expect 'everything to rise overnight'; it is highly likely to be 'narrative rotation' — first the large caps (ETH/SOL/BNB), then mid-cap utilities, and finally the high beta meme/low cap. The broad-net approach is basically dead; you need to choose sides.
4. My own trading mentality: not all in during alt season, but also not all out.
Currently, my positions are still biased towards BTC + ETH core + a small amount of altcoins I have conviction in (good on-chain data, rising TVL). Not chasing highs, not FOMOing.
If BTC dominance continues to rise to 62%+ from February to March, and TOTAL3 breaks lower again, I will be more cautious, even reducing positions for clearer bottom signals.
But if ETH/BTC starts to strengthen, the Alt Season Index breaks 50, and TOTAL3 stabilizes above 800B, I will start to gradually leverage for rotation.
Simply put: the 'old script' of alt season is gone, but a new script (more selective, more structural) may be writing chapters for 2026. Whether it's dead or not depends on how you define 'alt season'.
The alt season hasn't disappeared; it has just upgraded. From 'casino frenzy' to 'value hunter game'. Whoever still plays the 2021 game of all in low cap shit will likely continue to be harvested; those who grasp the right narratives + on-chain data will still have something to eat.