Today, Liang Xi (the contract expert, the one who makes millions with small capital by going long and short) made another strong statement: ETH is likely to drop below 1000 dollars, with the core purpose being to 'explode' Yi Lihua's (@Jackyi_ld) huge long position. One sentence directly blew up the community: on one hand shouting 'Liang Xi is leading the rhythm to cut leeks', on the other hand saying 'institutions/traders really want to do this'.
First, clarify the key facts (based on public posts and community estimates):
1. Yi Lihua's current position status
- It is rumored to hold about 100,000 ETH (spot + leveraged loans), with total exposure once exceeding 2 billion U.
- The average position opening price is roughly between 2000-3000 (after clearing out at 4500, buying near 3000).
- Community estimates the liquidation/bankruptcy line to be between 1685-1866 USD, with the most common saying around 1850.
- Yi Lihua's latest statement: As long as ETH is >1000, the position is absolutely safe; he has sufficient preparations and can repay most of the loans at any time, and will not be easily liquidated.
2. Liangxi's logic (why it is said to drop to 1000)
- Today, I chatted with a contract trader who said they would stop the decline only after forcing Yi Lihua’s position to hit the stop loss (similar to the bear market bottom in 2022 that hit Cai Wensheng).
- The current bear market is trending downward, with wave C of ABC, and the historical dense handover area of 2100-2200 has been tested multiple times.
- Institutions/market makers (BlackRock, Wintermute, etc.) are dumping through ETFs, and small to medium-sized whales are basically stopping losses; the next step is to liquidate large holders like Yi Lihua.
- After the panic selling from large holders, the selling pressure may be exhausted, leading to a potential technical rebound (classic 'sacrifice' logic).
3. Opposing/bullish voices (mainstream views)
- Yi Lihua repeatedly emphasizes: the bull market trend remains unchanged, ETH's long-term target is 20,000+, and fluctuations of a few hundred dollars are normal; with strong US stocks + the globalization of stablecoins + the US's encrypted strategic reserves, even if bears go crazy, they can’t turn the tide.
- Someone suggested using Collar options for hedging (buying Put to protect against downside + selling Call to offset costs), reducing the liquidation probability below 1000 to <5%.
- Reverse conspiracy theory: too much attention, too crowded with shorts; once it really drops to around 1800, it may actually lead to shorts making a fortune (similar to Cai Wensheng's near-death experience back then).
4. Community sentiment distribution
- Bearish camp: Liangxi's fans + many contract players shout 'the bear market is a cannibalistic feast' and 'a rebound is just an opportunity to short' and 'send Xiao Yi to deliver takeout.'
- Bullish camp: Yi Lihua's die-hard fans + long-term holders believe that 'the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish' and 'the logic of bottom-fishing remains unchanged.'
- Onlookers: Watching the roller coaster plot of 'losing millions of U with a principal of millions' and 'fluctuating several million after a night's sleep.'
It can be said that Liangxi's rhetoric this time is very toxic, precisely hitting the market's extreme fear (exploding big names = sacrifice), but the difficulty and cost of really dropping to 1000 is extremely high (requires continuous large-scale dumping + liquidity exhaustion).
Yi Lihua is not a pure bullish investor; he has hedging preparations + long-term belief, making it more likely to maintain the bankruptcy line.
Short-term ETH is likely to remain in a wide range of 2000-2500, with the direction ultimately depending on institutional willingness + macro factors (Federal Reserve, yen, US stocks).
Liangxi makes money from the rhythm, Yi Lihua bets on belief, and you are betting your life.