Bitcoin in February 2026: A liquidity struggle amidst geopolitical tensions

Analytical Introduction:

The movements of Bitcoin today cannot be understood in isolation from the global financial system; the digital currency is no longer just a technical asset, but has become a precise "thermometer" for global risk appetite. In February 2026, Bitcoin finds itself in a crucial "re-pricing" phase, oscillating between tight cash liquidity pressures and market maturation cycles following the halving phase, making it fully subject to the macroeconomic equation rather than technical randomness.

Current reality: Double pressure

On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around the $72,000 level after a continuous decline for more than three months. This drop is not just a technical correction but a direct reflection of two fundamental factors:

1- U.S. monetary policy: The Federal Reserve continues to hold high interest rates, reaffirming its priority in fighting inflation before providing liquidity. This situation has driven investors to flee from "risk-on assets" like Bitcoin and seek stable government bond yields.

2- Geopolitical disruptions: Along with the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, new flashpoints have emerged in unconventional areas such as resource conflicts in Greenland and tensions with Iran. These events have weakened the appetite for risk and forced

Institutional funds are reducing their exposure to digital assets.

Critical agenda: February 2026 milestones

To understand where the price is heading in the coming weeks, three key dates must be monitored that will determine the direction of liquidity:

  • February 10 - 12 (CPI Inflation Data):

    • Optimistic scenario: If inflation comes in lower than expected, we may see a rebound towards $75,000.

    • Pessimistic scenario: High inflation data means the "Federal grip" will continue, which may break below the $72,000 barrier.

  • February 21 (Labor Market Data):

    • The labor market is considered the hidden driver of the Federal decision. Weak data may stimulate hopes of starting monetary easing, injecting new liquidity into Bitcoin. Strong employment, on the other hand, will give the green light for continued tightening.

  • End of February (FOMC Meeting):

    • This is the main event; any hint at stabilizing interest rates or adopting a "dovish" language could push Bitcoin to test levels of $85,000. Conversely, sticking to a hawkish tone could lead the price to test levels below $60,000.

Strategic summary for investors

Bitcoin's movements in February 2026 are not arbitrary; they are the result of a confluence of interconnected economic and political factors. The successful investor at this stage is one who monitors "liquidity flows" and Federal decisions more than rumors or isolated charts. We are facing a mature financial asset that moves as an integral part of the global economic system, requiring a clear and comprehensive vision of the overall political and economic landscape.