Bitcoin has indeed recently broken below the $72,000 mark, and as of now (around noon Hong Kong time on February 5, 2026), the price has further dipped to around $71,000. According to multiple mainstream data sources (such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Investing.com, etc.), Bitcoin's latest price is fluctuating in the $71,000–$71,200 range, having once touched a low of $70,700–$71,000, with a 24-hour decline of about 7%. This is highly consistent with the analytical trends you provided: since the peak last October (around $126,000), the retracement has exceeded 42%, and the annual decline is close to or exceeds 17%, with the price retreating to a low near the post-election date of November 6, 2024.

### Core Changes in This Decline

In the past, large declines were often caused by internal leverage liquidations and self-reinforcing on-chain forced liquidations in the crypto space. But this round is clearly a **resonance of external macro risks**:

- Global risk-off sentiment is synchronized: Nasdaq, tech stocks (chips, software) plummet, Bitcoin is highly correlated with risk assets, rather than being an independent hedge.

- It’s no longer a ‘crypto-exclusive winter,’ but an extension of the ‘overall winter of risk assets.’ Bitcoin resembles a high-beta volatility amplifier rather than ‘digital gold.’

- Unstable funding: Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows a few days ago, quickly turning to net outflows, with institutional incremental funds showing clear fluctuation.

Market sentiment has entered the ‘extreme fear’ zone (Fear & Greed Index around 15 points), and many people have begun to directly question: when the demand for hedging truly erupts, will Bitcoin hold up?

### Key Price Levels and Market Bets

- **$72,000 has been lost** → The next focus is the support range of 68,000–70,000 dollars.

Multiple traders believe that if $68,000 also breaks, it is very likely to retest near the low point in November 2024, or even deeper.

- Polymarket predicts: 83% probability of dropping to $65,000 within the year, and the probability of falling below $55,000 has risen to 59% — this is already a quite pessimistic distribution.

- More extreme viewpoints (some Wall Street firms like Citi, Stifel): If systematic breakdown continues, historical cycle patterns may see tail risks of 30–40 thousand dollars, but the current mainstream expectation is still to find a phase bottom around 65k–70k.

### What exactly is the ‘crisis of faith’ questioning?

Essentially a dual shake-up:

1. **Short-term pricing mechanism**: Once external risk-off arises, Bitcoin has not shown independent resilience.

2. **Medium to long-term narrative**: The value storage/hedging attributes have repeatedly been challenged, especially when global uncertainty rises, it instead amplifies volatility.

3. **Emotional contagion amplification**: Bitcoin, as the anchor of the entire market, once it drops significantly, altcoins, DeFi, and leveraged players redeem + risk control avalanche intensifies.

This time it’s not ‘it has dropped again,’ but rather ‘why shouldn’t it drop?’ that is collapsing the underlying cognition.

### Possible Short-term Trends (Based on Current Data)

- If the US stock market/global risk appetite continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin is highly likely to explore below 70k again, even testing 68k–65k.

- However, if there is macro easing (unexpectedly dovish Fed, geopolitical de-escalation, US stock market rebound) + ETF fund inflows, there may be a phase of bottoming out in the 70k–68k range.

- In extreme tail scenarios, Polymarket’s 59% probability for 55k is also not impossible, but it requires more black swan impacts.

Crypto has never lacked reversal plots; this ‘crisis of faith’ phase may be more exhausting than a simple price drop — it directly challenges the holding logic of many. How do you see it now? Do you think it’s just another round of healthy consolidation, or is it really a longer bearish adjustment? Or have you already started positioning at lower levels?