The judgment of the cryptocurrency's trend mainly depends on the shape of the K-line, changes in trading volume, and the relative resonance of the fundamentals; all three are indispensable. Based on the current daily and weekly multi-period K-line trend of XPL/USDT (as of February 5), it is not difficult to see that XPL has initially completed its bottoming from the decline, and its trading volume signals have basically turned positive. Coupled with the technical implementation of the project and the support from Binance's ecosystem, the logic for XPL's rise in the long term has become relatively clear. In the short term, it can also build momentum in anticipation of explosive growth, making it one of the most promising investment targets in the current stablecoin sector.
Daily K-line analysis: The arc bottom pattern is taking shape, with solid bottom support and clear reversal signals. From the recent daily price movements, XPL has formed a typical arc bottom pattern on Binance after several months of downward adjustment — a classic bullish reversal structure that usually appears after a long-term decline, reflecting a slow transition from selling pressure dominance to bullish accumulation. Bearish momentum continues to fade, with buyers gradually regaining control. Specifically, XPL has formed a key bottom demand zone around $0.1152, which has been successfully tested multiple times without effective breakdowns, indicating very solid bottom support and ample bullish buying power. At the same time, the recent price is gradually curving upward in an arc, breaking through the short-term resistance level at $0.16, further reinforcing the signal of bottom accumulation and indicating that the trend is about to undergo a directional change.
From the perspective of the moving average system, the daily 5-day moving average has begun to turn upward, gradually approaching the 10-day moving average, and is expected to form a short-term golden cross. Once the golden cross is established, it will further release bullish signals and drive a short-term trend recovery. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average is currently around $0.1812, becoming a key short-term resistance level. If it can successfully break through and stabilize above this moving average, it will indicate a complete reversal of XPL's momentum, with the bulls officially taking control and initiating a mid-term upward trend. Additionally, the daily MACD indicator has gradually rebounded from a low position, with green bars continuously shortening and about to enter above the zero axis. The RSI indicator has also rebounded from the oversold zone (below 30) to around 50, showing no signs of overbought conditions, indicating that the current rise still has ample space, with no short-term overheating signs, and the trend remains healthy and stable.
The long-term bottom consolidation of the "box oscillation" ($0.11-$0.18) in the market is accompanied by a healthy trend of "volume contraction and volume rebound" for XPL. More notably, as capital from outside gradually enters the market, the strength of the bulls continues to strengthen. As the slope of the 20-week and 30-week moving averages gradually slows down, the long-term downward momentum is gradually exhausted. Once the volume expands and breaks through the upper edge of the box at $0.18, a long-term upward trend will begin. However, from a volume perspective, the 24-hour trading volume of XPL on Binance has stabilized above $280 million, accounting for more than 45% of the global total, and its trading depth is also quite sufficient. Moreover, the trading volume during this rebound phase has increased by over 30% compared to the previous correction phase, with significant volume support in the range of $0.12-$0.14. Additionally, the concentration of chips has also increased, providing a solid foundation for subsequent rallies.
Through in-depth exploration of the fundamentals and detailed grasp of the K-line, we have gradually developed a firm positive outlook on XPL's trend, especially with the recent dual resonance of K-line signals and fundamentals contributing to a better interpretation and prediction of its overall direction. With the overall improvement in technicals and fundamental support advancing together, the bottom trend of XPL has become increasingly clear: First, Binance's ecosystem continues to support XPL, allowing it to benefit from CZ's stablecoin strategy, resulting in substantial traffic and capital support. Second, the Plasma team's technical implementation has also provided support for efficient transactions at 1000+ TPS, and the convenience of zero-fee USDT transfers has broadened the coverage of XPL's ecosystem. Third, the model of XPL's token is also quite scientific, ensuring a stable issuance of Binance's stablecoin while continuously enhancing the scarcity of XPL through deflationary destruction. All of these factors have helped avoid short-term selling pressure on XPL.
Based on the gradual recovery of the crypto market, our predictions for its future trend have become increasingly clear: In the short term (1-2 weeks), it will continue to consolidate around $0.12-$0.18, and after breaking through the important resistance line at $0.1812, we can preliminarily achieve the short-term target of $0.25. In the medium term (1-3 months), as the crypto market continues to recover, we can achieve a doubling of the target to $0.5 by breaking through the neckline at $0.3321. In the long term (6-12 months), benefiting from the explosive growth of stablecoins, we expect to break through historical highs. However, it is not difficult to see that with the unlocking of 250 million XPL on July 2, 2026, there will be a significant impact on XPL's price, and the demand and capital flow in the ecosystem will also greatly affect XPL's price. Therefore, in the short term, we must hold the bottom at $0.1152 amidst potential corrections in Bitcoin and market fluctuations; otherwise, it will completely break our previous bullish logic regarding XPL.