#BTC
The Bitcoin market in February 2026 is experiencing a scenario of extreme volatility that raises the classic debate: are we facing genuine retail panic or a strategic "cleaning" orchestrated by large holders?
Below, I present a critical analysis based on on-chain data and recent institutional movements recorded at the beginning of this year.
1. Manipulation: The "Exit Liquidity" of the Whales
There is strong evidence that the current movement is not just random, but rather a coordinated distribution event.
Whale Proportion on Exchanges: In January 2026, the proportion of large holders entering exchanges (EMA14 metric) reached the highest level in ten months. This indicates that the whales are moving assets to trading platforms to exert selling pressure.
Coordinated Sales: Just in January 2026, whales executed a coordinated sale of US$ 2,78 billion, which overwhelmed retail demand and forced the price down from important psychological levels.
The Hunt for Liquidity: Analysts suggest that whales take advantage of moments of "false recovery" to create exit liquidity, selling their assets to smaller investors who believe that the bottom has already been reached.
2. Fear: The Collapse of Narratives and the Macro Scenario
On the other hand, the "meltdown" finds fertile ground in macroeconomic pessimism, suggesting that fear is a real component and not just a byproduct of manipulation.
Safe Haven Failure: While Bitcoin has fallen about 38% from its all-time high in October 2025 (US$ 126.100), gold reached records of US$ 5.600 per ounce in February 2026. This weakened the narrative of "digital gold," generating panic among institutional investors who used BTC as a hedge.
Geopolitical and Tariff Tensions: Tariff shocks between the US and the European Union, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, have pushed investors towards lower-risk assets, resulting in massive net outflows from BTC ETFs.