Dear friends, I am Jiali. In the past 24 hours, the market has undergone a severe 'stress test'. Bitcoin once fell below the 60,000 dollar mark, with an intraday decline exceeding 11%, and has retraced more than 50% from its historical high. Ethereum also fell in tandem, briefly dropping below 1,800 dollars.
This fluctuation led to over 570,000 people being liquidated, with a total amount reaching 2.6 billion dollars, and market sentiment has dropped to freezing point. Compared to the previously discussed 77,000 point level, the market has fundamentally changed, and we must reassess key positions and strategies.
📉 The key position has been broken, and the market has entered a new phase
The important support levels have been consecutively broken, and the market structure has turned bearish:
· Bitcoin (BTC): $70,000 has become the new key resistance level. The current price is running below it, and if it cannot quickly recover, the next important weekly support range may be between $62,000 and $72,000. A more severe view suggests that if sentiment continues to deteriorate, a test of $60,000 or even deeper levels cannot be ruled out.
· Ethereum (ETH): It is repeatedly testing the historical core demand zone of $2,000 to $2,200. This is one of the last lines of defense for the bulls, and if it can hold, a short-term bottom is expected to form; if it effectively breaks down, downside risks may point to the $1,600 to $1,800 area. Recent data shows that the ETH price has returned above $1,900, and the decline has narrowed, which is an initial stabilization signal that needs attention.
🔍 The core logic behind the crash
This decline is the result of multiple factors overlapping:
1. Macro sentiment transmission: The sell-off of global risk assets (especially U.S. tech stocks) has intensified the risk-averse sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Liquidation chain reaction: The sharp decline triggered a large number of leveraged long positions to be forcibly liquidated, creating a vicious cycle of "decline - liquidation - sell-off - further decline."
3. The narrative heat cools: Some market analysts believe that Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge has failed to deliver in the short term, leading to a weakening interest from some traditional institutional investors. Derivative market data also shows that traders have very low expectations for a significant short-term rebound.
💡 Current operational thinking reference
Before a clear trend reversal, "following the trend" and "risk control" are more important than "bottom-fishing":
· For holders: $70,000 (BTC) and $2,000 (ETH) have become important lines of strength and weakness. If positions are heavy and cannot return above these key levels, consideration should be given to reducing positions or setting strict stop-loss orders to control risk exposure.
· For onlookers: The market needs time to digest panic sentiment and build a bottom. Before a clear daily-level stabilization signal accompanied by increased trading volume appears, it is not advisable to heavily bottom-fish. Attention can be closely paid to the long-short struggle of Bitcoin in the $62,000-$72,000 range, as well as Ethereum's performance in the $1,900-$2,000 area.
· Long-term perspective: Each significant adjustment is a test of market health. For long-term investors, it is time to start paying attention to projects that still maintain strong fundamentals during bear markets and formulate a phased layout plan, but the timing of entry requires great patience.
Conclusion
The market is clearing pressure in extreme ways. When the dust of panic settles, true value will gradually emerge. At this moment, preserving capital and maintaining a calm observation is more important than any operation.
I am Jiali, recording my thoughts at Binance Square. The market is highly volatile, and the above is only my personal market analysis, not constituting any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously and be responsible for your investments.
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If you want to delve deeper into a specific aspect, I can provide further analysis:
1. How to identify effective bottom stabilization technical signals.
2. In a declining market, what practical risk hedging or position management strategies are available.
3. Besides price, what on-chain fundamental data is worth paying attention to now.
