ondo

Ondo Finance ($ONDO ) está evolucionando de ser una simple plataforma de tokenización. La empresa ha anunciado oficialmente el lanzamiento de Ondo Perps, una plataforma innovadora para futuros perpetuos que combina TradFi y DeFi en un nuevo nivel.

A diferencia de los DEX convencionales, donde solo se aceptan stablecoins como garantía, Ondo permitirá usar como margen:

The recent filing for an ONDO ETF by 21Shares has pushed the token back into the spotlight, reviving discussions around institutional exposure and long-term potential. However, despite the positive narrative surrounding the ETF development, ONDO’s price action over the past few weeks paints a far less optimistic picture.
Rather than signaling a clear trend reversal, ONDO has continued to trade near local lows, highlighting a growing disconnect between market narrative and actual price structure.
Price Reaction Appears Market-Driven, Not ETF-Led
Over the past 24 hours, ONDO recorded a price increase of nearly 8%, bringing it close to the $0.25 level. While this rebound has attracted short-term attention, it has occurred alongside a broader recovery across the crypto market.
As a result, it remains difficult to attribute ONDO’s recent move directly to the ETF filing itself. Current buying pressure appears to be largely beta-driven, following overall market momentum rather than reflecting fresh, token-specific demand.
Despite the short-term bounce, ONDO continues to trade below key structural levels that were previously broken during the downtrend. Each attempt to reclaim higher price zones has been met with renewed selling pressure, reinforcing the ongoing dominance of sellers.
Historically, similar recovery attempts have failed quickly, further consolidating bearish control. Volatility has expanded only briefly during broader market rallies, before compressing again — a pattern that typically signals reactive price movement rather than sustainable accumulation.
As such, while the ETF news has restored visibility to ONDO, short-term price behavior remains dictated by overall market direction, not by a fundamental shift driven by the ETF narrative.
Bears Defend Broken Structure as Downside Risk Persists
ONDO continues to face notable resistance as sellers actively defend previously lost structural levels, keeping downside risk elevated despite a slowing pace of decline.
On the daily timeframe, price action has been consistently rejected below $0.356, a former support zone that has now flipped into resistance. ONDO’s repeated failure to reclaim this area underscores the continued strength of supply, which has capped every meaningful recovery attempt so far.
Within this context, the $0.20 level is emerging as the next critical demand zone. This area previously served as a prolonged accumulation range and generated strong historical reactions. Should selling pressure intensify again, a move toward this region remains a primary downside scenario.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect weak underlying strength, reinforcing the view that current rebounds lack the conviction needed for a sustained recovery.
Leverage Declines as Traders Reduce Exposure
Activity in the derivatives market has cooled significantly, signaling a shift in trader behavior from aggressive positioning to capital preservation.
Total derivatives trading volume has dropped sharply by 40.51%, falling to approximately $227.96 million. This contraction suggests that speculative capital is actively exiting, rather than rotating into new directional bets.
At the same time, open interest declined by 1.50% to $68.52 million. The combination of falling volume and decreasing open interest typically reflects deleveraging, as traders close existing positions instead of opening new ones.
Market participants appear increasingly reluctant to chase price in a downtrend or to preemptively position for a recovery. This behavior points to eroding confidence within the derivatives market, even as some liquidity remains.
Importantly, the relatively modest decline in open interest suggests a selective withdrawal rather than widespread panic. Liquidity is still present, but noticeably thinner — meaning that even modest capital flows could trigger outsized price movements.
Funding Rate Turns Negative as Shorts Gain Control
Funding rates have shifted into negative territory, confirming a clear transfer of control toward sellers in the ONDO derivatives market.
At the time of observation, funding rates hovered around -0.0024%, indicating that long positions are paying fees to short positions. This dynamic reflects market consensus leaning toward continued downside risk, rather than expectations of a near-term rebound.
That said, persistently negative funding rates often carry secondary implications. When short positioning becomes overcrowded, the market tends to grow increasingly sensitive to sharp upward moves, raising the risk of unexpected short squeezes.
However, as long as ONDO remains unable to reclaim key resistance levels on the chart, funding rates are better interpreted as a reflection of prevailing sentiment, not as a precise timing signal.
Overall, the current funding environment suggests a defensive market stance, with latent volatility building beneath the surface.
Liquidation Zones Highlight Near-Term Risk Boundaries
Liquidation heatmaps further clarify ONDO’s short-term risk landscape, revealing tightly packed leverage clusters that form critical liquidity thresholds.
A significant concentration of leveraged short positions sits above the $0.27 level, making this area particularly sensitive in the event of a strong upward move. Any sustained push higher could quickly place pressure on bearish positions.
Conversely, long liquidations are clustered between $0.24 and $0.23, just below the current price. A breakdown into this zone could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, accelerating downside momentum.
This structure effectively traps traders within a narrow volatility corridor, where leverage is heavily compressed and liquidity hunts become increasingly likely. In such conditions, the direction of the breakout may matter less than the magnitude, as forced liquidations can significantly amplify price movement once the range is breached.
ETF Narrative vs Market Reality
While the ONDO ETF filing has undeniably brought renewed attention to the token, market structure continues to dominate price behavior.
Persistent rejection below $0.356, weakening derivatives volume, and sustained negative funding rates all point toward a market that remains defensive rather than accumulative. Meanwhile, the dense concentration of liquidation zones increases volatility risk without providing clear directional conviction.
At this stage, the ETF narrative appears to function more as a speculative talking point than a genuine catalyst for trend reversal. Until ONDO can reclaim key technical levels with confirmation from volume and capital inflows, downside risk remains firmly in play.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects market data and publicly available information. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred.
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