volatility

What exactly drove the market and why the dead or bubble chart still applies.
The chart you have provided is doing what it always does; it condenses decades of feeling into an easy pattern. On the one hand, people refer to Bitcoin as a bubble when it is on the rise, and dead when it is falling. January 2026 is enough to explain that.
January 2026 had real catalysts. Bitcoin never just turned into a story. It was responding to policy shock and liquidity and rapid reset of macro expectation in a variety of asset classes.

The month in one line
It was a month that markets were reminded of a dull fact having flown through the thin end of the liquidity tap and leveraged, that in the coming months, even when the safest of holdings gets stressed, the Bitcoin accidentally becomes the victim of the same risk unwind.
The upsurge in the beginning of January was not accidental.
You have mentioned the high early on January 14. That's not a made up number. The historic price volumes of BTC-USD indicate that been published on January 14, 2026, a daily high regarded as around 97,860.60.
As a backgrounder, Forbes also reported that mid month push with Bitcoin hitting its peak in an approximate of two months at the time.
So it was not the dead of the first half of January. It was a risk-on run that had concentrated positions, confidence restored and price was subjected to a liquidity level that is not friendly to crowded trades.
It was not until late month that the policy expectations broke.
The second part of January became another game: it was no longer about crypto stories, but rather about macro direction.
January 30 saw the presidential nomination of Kevin Warsh to the post of Fed chair in place of Jerome Powell in the news of major outlets, which instantly shook rate expectations and created shockwaves in markets.
It was not the politics that were important. It was what traders believed it was: policy might remain tight as desired, the dollar might appreciate, and dovish bets may be liquidated within no time.

That's exactly what happened.
The strongest noise macro signal of the month was the flash crash of metals.
To get a single January event that describes the atmosphere of everything, including Bitcoin, it was the precious metals collapse.
The gold futures that Barron was describing had dropped about 11 per cent and the silver futures had fallen about 31 per cent in one day after the headline on the nomination of Warsh had been published.
That being a metals trader or not, that is a big deal. Stability should be the case with gold and silver. When they gape down so hard that is an indication that the market is not calmly repricing. It's deleveraging.
And deleveraging does not always remain in any section of the market.
The decline of Bitcoin was more logical when you consider it liquidity math.
In the same late January trading window, Bitcoin went to new 2026 lows. On January 29, CoinDesk published a report of Bitcoin conditioned at a range of $85,200 and coinciding to 2026 low.
Your price benchmark of Jan 31 (approximately the low 80s) is more in line with the larger picture: a month that began robustly and finished stressfully.
Although various outlets were slightly different in the final prices at various points, the framework is uniform with the market data and headlines: risk contracted, leverage was punished, and BTC was following the risk unwind.
At this time, (to get a live snapshot) the BTC quote feed is indicating about $79k and an intraday high of about 84k.
Feeling did not melt down, it was jerked.

You mentioned extreme fear. That is pointed in the right direction.
Sentiment indicators indicated an Extreme Fear rating consisted of ratings of about high teens down to low 20s about 31 January based on index source and time of update. A single feed had the reading of 16 and other trackers had 20 or mid 20s.
This is what happens most of the time then a visible high has been corrected and the market begins to suspect every bounce is the beginning of something bad, and every dip is the beginning of something bader.
That's not a price prediction. That is how crowd psychology reacts following a severe shock.
The best crypto specific headline of the end of January was reserves, rather than price.
In January, it was Binance discussing reserve position and SAFU in case it had a single story, however, it was not trading.
In January 30, Binance released an open letter that talked about the expectation of the industry in the area of governance, risk, and responsibility in times of volatility.
And several also reported Binance considering converting some of its $1 billion SAFU reserve to Bitcoin, where rebalancing will maintain the reserve value on a steady level by drawing down.
Whatever anyone may think of the move, it is a key indicator of the month since it puts Bitcoin in the context of infrastructure collateral and not a trade.
A reserve decision is another type of communication in a month when metals were a constant reminder to everyone of what leverage can do.
What that translates to the dead zone of your chart about BTC.
One thing your chart is correct in is that the loudest claims will present themselves at the wrong time.
The bubble talk comes back when Bitcoin is on a boom. During the correcting phase of Bitcoin, the death talk resurfaces.
The month of January 2026 provided us with a pure demonstration of the repetition of the labels.
Bitcoin didn't "die." It was responding to a risk tightening environment, policy uncertainty and a general de-leveraging impulse that struck even the traditional safe havens. The chart is a reflection of the emotional loop and the month itself was caused by macro shocks and liquidity conditions.

And that is what it really was the lesson of January 2026.
Not that Bitcoin is weak.
However, that the contemporary markets are unstable when leverage and expectations collide, and Bitcoin is currently a well-established asset that does not exist outside the system but exists within it.
#Bitcoin #BitcoinETFWatch #MarketCorrection #Liquidations #volatility

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While global markets were asleep, Washington quietly pulled the plug. A partial U.S. government shutdown is now in effect after the House failed to pass a funding agreement. Lawmakers won’t reconvene until Monday, and while a fix is possible, nothing is guaranteed.

Because this happened over the weekend, markets had no chance to react in real time. No volatility spike, no early signals. The reaction was delayed — and now it hits at the open.

When shutdowns start during thin liquidity, uncertainty builds beneath the surface. By the time markets reopen, positions often adjust all at once, creating headline-driven risk as traders react simultaneously rather than gradually.

Key things to watch:
- How futures respond at market open ⏱️
- Volatility spikes from policy uncertainty 🔥
- Risk assets pricing the possibility of a longer shutdown
- Rotation toward Treasuries and safe havens 🏦
- Interrupted economic data leaving macro investors with fewer signals

History offers some reassurance. Short-lived shutdowns rarely trigger market crashes, but they almost always raise uncertainty. Markets dislike ambiguity even more than clearly bad news — repricing fuels volatility.

Timing makes this episode delicate. Since the shutdown began while markets were closed, price discovery was postponed, concentrating risk. Monday is when the real test begins.

Washington may remain closed, but markets never sleep.

#USGovShutdown #Binance #crypto #markets #volatility
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