Current data suggests a higher probability of first filling the lower gap near ~60K before directly surging to 82K. Short- to medium-term rebounds are possible, but depend on whether key support levels can be effectively held and trigger renewed bullish momentum.
Key Logic and Evidence
1) Structure and Trend (Why Favors Filling 60K)
Daily technical analysis shows extreme oversold conditions (RSI12 ≈ 24–26), with the daily Bollinger Band lower band near ~61.96K and a support zone at approximately 59–62K (tools: kline_analyze_day & tech_analysis_detect). Extreme oversold conditions often precede阶段性 rebounds or consolidation—market correction by filling the lower gap to repair excessive selling pressure aligns with typical momentum patterns.
2) Long/Short Funding and Orderbook Signals
Short-term (15m/1h/4h) large order flow and orderbook data indicate recent significant net outflows (negative 15m/1h/4h large_order_net_flow), low short-term buying ratios, and persistent large sell pressure (high orderbook large_ask and net_flow indicators). This suggests remaining short-term selling pressure needs to be absorbed, increasing the likelihood of further downward testing of support levels.
3) Liquidation Thresholds and Sentiment Risk (Hindering Rapid Upsurge)
A breakout above ~70.55K would trigger substantial short liquidations (Coinglass data suggests ~$155M in short liquidation pressure), but current Fear & Greed Index is extremely low (single-digit levels), making institutional and passive positions more prone to stop-loss triggers or观望 during panic phases. This limits sustained strong buying pressure needed for a direct run-up to 82K in the short term.
4) Breakout Conditions (When Could It Reach 82K?)
If price consolidates in the 68–70K range, volume expands, and 1H/4H large-order net flow shifts from net outflow to net inflow, while effectively holding above 70.5K (breaking and digesting the short squeeze wall), then a technical path toward 82K becomes viable. In short: a clear shift in funding dynamics and volume confirmation is required.
Trading & Risk Warnings (Strategic Recommendations)
If favoring defense/conservative positioning, wait for price to fill the gap and observe volume and large-order flow near 59–62K before considering phased accumulation.
If bullish but seeking to participate in a short-term rebound, consider adding positions after confirmation of a rebound above 70.5K (with verified large net inflows).
Monitor key trigger levels: 70.5K (short squeeze threshold), 63.9K (threshold for large long liquidations), and 60–62K (daily Bollinger lower band and gap zone).
Related News Signals (Immediate Impact)
Recent negative/panic-driven news and large-scale sell-offs have increased short-term volatility (e.g., Bithumb’s accidental airdrop causing a brief plunge). Market sentiment remains fearful, raising the probability of continued downward correction.
