🚨 $BTC $100K REALITY CHECK — MARKET IS COOLING 🚨

Prediction markets are sending a clear signal:

Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in early 2026 looks very unlikely.

📉 Key Market Data:

Less than 10% probability $BTC reaches $100K before February 2026

Traders now expect $100K only after mid-2026, not anytime soon

💥 Downside Scenarios Being Priced In:

65% chance BTC drops to $80K before any new ATH

54% probability of a $70K bottom

50% odds of $65K

42% chance of a move toward $60k

⚠️ Critical Level to Watch:

Prediction markets assign a 75% probability that BTC trades below Strategy’s average cost basis (~$75,979) this year.

🧠 However — strong hands remain:

Less than 26% chance Strategy sells Bitcoin

High confidence the firm continues long-term accumulation

📊 Market Sentiment Shift:

Since the October crash, traders have moved into risk-off mode.

Focus is now on:

Capital preservation

Macro clarity

Liquidity improvement

Fresh ETF inflows

🔍 My Take:

Short-term momentum is weak.

Consolidation or another dip wouldn’t be surprising.

But long-term conviction is still intact.

$100K is not canceled — it’s just delayed.

#BTC #Bitcoin #crypto #MarketSentimen #ETF