In the cryptocurrency market, not every sharp price move is an opportunity. Sometimes, the smartest decision is patience. Based on the current chart structure, price action, and order book data, RIVER/USDT is currently in a high-risk zone that requires careful analysis.
Current Market Overview
RIVER/USDT has experienced a massive price fluctuation within a short period. After reaching a recent high near the 23–24 USDT zone, the price faced strong selling pressure and dropped sharply to the 13 USDT area, marking a decline of over 25% in 24 hours.
This type of move often indicates distribution followed by panic selling, especially when volume increases during the downside move.
Technical Structure Analysis
On the 4H timeframe, the market structure is clearly bearish.
Lower highs and lower lows are forming consistently.
Price is trading below key moving averages.
No strong bullish engulfing or confirmed reversal candles are visible.
Every small bounce is being sold aggressively.
This confirms that the market is still in a downtrend, not a healthy pullback.
Order Book and Market Sentiment
The order book data shows that sellers are slightly dominating buyers. There are noticeable sell walls above the current price level, while buying pressure near support remains weak.
This suggests that buyers currently lack confidence, and sellers are still in control. As a result, any upside move is likely to be temporary unless strong volume enters the market.
Probability Outlook
Based on the current technical and order book data:
Downward continuation probability: 50–55%
Short-term relief bounce probability: 30–35%
True trend reversal probability: 15–20%
A real trend reversal would only be confirmed if the price breaks above the 15–16 USDT zone with strong volume and holds that level on higher timeframes.
Buy or Sell Decision
Buying (Long Position)
Buying at this stage is not recommended. Entering long positions during a strong downtrend is often referred to as catching a falling knife and carries a high risk of further losses.
Selling (Short Position)
Short positions may be considered only with proper confirmation, such as a clear support breakdown, strong bearish candles, and increasing volume. This approach is suitable only for experienced traders with strict risk management.
Best Decision: Wait
For most traders, especially beginners and intermediate traders, the safest decision is to stay out of the market and wait for a confirmed structure change.
Final Verdict
RIVER/USDT remains bearish. The probability of further downside is higher than an immediate upside move. Trading without confirmation in this market condition carries more risk than reward.
Capital protection should always come first. Market opportunities will always return, but lost capital is difficult to recover.
Sometimes, not trading is the best trade.
