coinbase

The crypto market is entering a "stress test" phase. While price action remains deceptive, the underlying data points to a massive realignment of capital. Bitcoin is currently compressing near $66,643, acting like a tightly coiled spring in a high-pressure zone.
1. The Macro Shock: Real Estate & Commodities
The broader economy is flashing a warning sign we haven't seen in years.
Housing Crisis 2.0: US existing home sales plunged 8.4% in January, the worst print since 2022. This signals a severe liquidity crunch.Silver Liquidation: Silver took a brutal 9% hit down to $76.7, as retail investors rush to liquidate assets for cash. When traditional safe-havens bleed, risk assets like $BTC usually follow.
2. Insider Distribution: The $550M Signal
Perhaps the most alarming signal comes from within the industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has unloaded over 1.5 million shares (worth approximately $550M) since last April. When exchange executives de-risk this heavily during a period of "compression," it often signals a local top or a major shift in market structure.
3. New Volatility Tools: Polymarket's 5-Minute Bets
Adding fuel to the fire, Polymarket has just launched 5-minute price direction bets for Bitcoin. This "ultra-short-term" gambling introduces massive leverage into an already tight range, making "stop hunts" and "liquidity sweeps" between $66,000 and $68,000 more likely than ever.
The Verdict: Neutral with Bearish Bias
Technically, $BTC is defending the $60,000–$62,800 support zone. However, with Extreme Fear hitting levels of 5 to 8 on the index, the risk of a "liquidity flush" toward $55,000 is real.
Trading Strategy: Do not force trades in this range. A daily close below $65,520 could trigger a deeper cycle reset.
Poll: What is your next move in this environment?
Accumulate more (HODL)De-risk and wait for $55kTrade the 5-min volatility on Polymarket
#BTC #bitcoin #CryptoNews #coinbase #macroeconomy

The last few days created a lot of noise. Headlines are everywhere. Coinbase reported a large net loss around 667 million dollars. The stock is down roughly seventy percent from its 2025 highs. On top of that news spread that some users faced temporary withdrawal issues. Then another report showed that Brian Armstrong sold around 1.5 million shares worth about 550 million dollars.

When investors see these things together the first reaction is panic.

But before jumping to conclusions we need to break this down calmly.

First let us talk about the stock drop. Coinbase stock falling seventy percent does not automatically mean the exchange is collapsing. Coinbase revenue is highly connected to crypto trading volume. When the market slows down revenue falls sharply. When the bull market returns profits usually explode again. This business model is very cyclical. During hype cycles earnings look amazing. During slowdown cycles earnings look terrible.

The 667 million dollar loss sounds huge but many tech and growth companies go through loss periods during volatile cycles. The important question is liquidity and balance sheet strength not just one quarter loss.

Now about the CEO selling shares. It sounds scary when headlines say 550 million dollars sold. But executives often sell shares through pre planned programs. It does not always mean they believe the company is failing. Sometimes it is diversification. Sometimes tax planning. Context matters.

Now the withdrawal issue. Crypto exchanges sometimes experience temporary delays when there is heavy traffic or network congestion. When markets panic many users try to withdraw at the same time. Systems can slow down. That does not automatically equal insolvency. We need confirmed proof of liquidity problems before labeling it collapse risk.

So far there is no confirmed report that Coinbase cannot meet withdrawals. Temporary pauses are different from bankruptcy.

Another important factor is regulation pressure. Coinbase has been dealing with ongoing regulatory battles in the United States. Legal costs and compliance expenses are rising. That reduces profit margins. Market uncertainty also keeps institutional activity lower than during peak cycles.

Trading volumes across the industry have cooled compared to the bull run phase. Lower volume means lower transaction fees. Lower fees mean weaker quarterly results. This explains part of the weakness.

Now the big question.

Is Coinbase about to collapse.

Right now there is no concrete evidence showing insolvency. The stock market reacting negatively does not equal bankruptcy. The crypto industry is extremely sensitive to sentiment. When fear spreads everything connected to crypto gets sold aggressively.

We saw similar fears in past cycles. In 2018 many exchanges were rumored to be dying. In 2022 after major exchange failures people believed the whole industry was finished. Strong players survived because they had proper reserves and compliance systems.

Coinbase is a publicly listed company. Its financials are audited. That gives more transparency compared to private offshore exchanges. If there was a serious liquidity hole it would likely surface through filings and disclosures.

But that does not mean investors should ignore risk. High volatility businesses carry risk. Regulatory battles are ongoing. Revenue depends heavily on market cycles. If crypto stays weak for long time earnings pressure will continue.

So what are we seeing right now.

We are seeing a combination of weak market sentiment declining volume regulatory overhang and sharp stock repricing. That creates fear narrative.

Collapse is a strong word. Weak quarter is different from systemic failure.

The situation should be watched closely. Monitor withdrawal processing times. Monitor official statements. Monitor earnings updates and balance sheet data. Do not rely only on viral posts.

Crypto markets amplify panic very fast. But history shows that not every bad headline leads to disaster.

Right now it looks more like market stress and cycle weakness rather than confirmed collapse.

The difference between fear and fact is very important in situations like this.

$BTC $COIN $ETH
#coinbase #Binance #USNFPBlowout #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #CPIWatch

📅 February 12 - United States | Crypto giant Coinbase felt the impact of the bear market once again. After a solid third quarter, the company closed the fourth quarter of 2025 with a surprising net loss of $667 million, a sharp reversal from previous gains.

📖The company reported $1.8 billion in total revenue, a 5% decrease compared to the previous quarter. Transaction revenue fell 6% to $983 million, while the subscriptions and services segment declined 3% to $727 million.
The decline was largely attributed to losses related to its digital asset portfolio and other strategic investments.
The context didn't help. Towards the end of the year, the crypto market lost approximately $1.1 trillion in capitalization, a decline of nearly 25%. So far in 2026, another $700 billion has evaporated, deepening the pressure on exchanges and companies linked to the sector.
In detail, retail transaction revenue fell 13%, driven by increased use of advanced trading tools with lower fees and the expansion of Coinbase One.
Institutional spot trading volume also declined, although institutional revenues grew thanks to the dynamism in derivatives, including the recent integration of Deribit. One positive point was the stablecoins business: USDC-linked revenues grew 3%, reaching $364 million, supported by record average balances within the platform.
Despite the adverse quarter, Coinbase ended the year with $11.3 billion in cash and equivalents, and continued to buy back shares, accumulating around $1.7 billion in buybacks through early February.
Meanwhile, the company continues to expand its vision of the so-called “Everything Exchange”, incorporating stock and ETF trading, US prediction markets, stablecoin payment infrastructure, and a greater focus on derivatives.

Topic Opinion:
Coinbase is heavily dependent on volume and volatility. When the market cools, revenue contracts rapidly. But it is also true that the company maintains a solid liquidity position and continues to diversify its offerings.
💬 Do you think Coinbase can sustain its model in a prolonged sideways market?

Leave your comment...
#coinbase #CryptoMarket #bitcoin #USDC #CryptoNews $BTC $USDC

Epstein Files release is having a significant, targeted impact on the markets today, February 12, 2026. While it isn't causing a total market crash, it has triggered specific "Reputational Shocks" in the banking, tech and crypto sectors.
Here is the breakdown of how these revelations are hitting the charts.
🏦 1. Traditional Finance: The "Reputational Tax"
The latest document dump from the DOJ (over 3 million pages) has reignited legal and compliance fears for major global banks.
JPMorgan Chase & Deutsche Bank: These institutions are seeing increased volatility as newly unmasked emails suggest deeper historical ties than previously acknowledged. Analysts are calling this a "Reputational Tax," with JPMorgan reportedly increasing its 2026 compliance budget by 15% to handle renewed vetting and potential "Jane Doe" lawsuits.UK Turmoil: The files have triggered a political crisis in Britain. Former Ambassador Peter Mandelson is under investigation for allegedly sharing market-sensitive info with Epstein years ago. This caused Sterling (GBP) to slip to its lowest level against the Euro since January.
🟠 2. Crypto: The 2014 Investment Shock
The most trending topic on Binance Square is the revelation of Epstein's early ties to the "founding fathers" of crypto.
Coinbase & Blockstream: Newly released files detail that Epstein invested $3 million in Coinbase and funded Blockstream back in 2014. While the companies have grown into giants since then, the news has created a "Sentiment Drag" during an already weak week for BTC.Brian Armstrong Under Fire: As Coinbase recently joined the S&P 500, these historical ties are being weaponized by regulators to push for even stricter KYC (Know Your Customer) and "Founder-Risk" oversight.
⚖️ 3. Political Risk & Trade Policy
In the U.S., the files are causing friction within the administration, specifically targeting Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The Lutnick Factor: Confirmation that Lutnick visited Epstein's island in 2012 (contradicting previous denials) has led to calls for his resignation.Market Impact: Because Lutnick is a key architect of U.S. Trade Policy, his potential departure is making equity traders nervous about a shift toward more aggressive (and market-destabilizing) tariffs.
📊 Epstein File Market Heatmap
Sector Impact Level Primary Driver
Banking 🟠 Moderate Legal settlements & compliance costs.
Crypto 🔴 High Reputational blow to early venture history.
GBP / UK Gilts 🔴 High Political instability and resignations.
Tech (S&P 500) 🟡 Low General "Founder-Risk" anxiety.

Summary: While we battle the $66k floor, a new "Black Swan" has emerged from the past. The DOJ's release of the Epstein Files has linked the convicted financier to the early funding rounds of Bitcoin's biggest infrastructure. We analyze whether this is a "Reputational Dip" or a systemic threat to the 2026 Institutional narrative
#BinanceSquare #EpsteinFiles #coinbase #Cryptolaw #writetoearn
$BTC

Coinbase Reports $667M Net Loss for Q4 2025 as Crypto Market Downturn Triggers Heavy Impairments
Coinbase reported a net loss of $666.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 12, 2026, primarily due to non-cash impairment charges on its cryptocurrency holdings. Despite the headline loss, the company emphasized record 2025 growth, including doubling its crypto trading market share to 6.4% and reaching nearly 1 million Coinbase One subscribers.

Q4 2025 Financial Performance
The results reflect the impact of a significant crypto market downturn in late 2025, during which Bitcoin prices fell sharply from October peaks.
Revenue: Total revenue fell 22% year-over-year to $1.78 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.83 billion.
Losses: The $666.7 million net loss ($2.49 per share) was driven by a $718 million non-cash impairment on crypto investments and a $395 million loss on strategic stakes, including Circle.
Transaction Revenue: Transaction revenue dropped to $983 million, a 36% decrease from the prior year, as consumer spot trading volume slid to $56 billion.
Operational Profitability: Adjusted net profit remained positive at $178 million, showing that core exchange operations remained profitable despite asset markdowns.
Strategic Outlook for 2026
Management remains optimistic about 2026, focusing on expanding into derivatives and stablecoins.
Q1 2026 Guidance: Coinbase expects subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million, which is below initial analyst expectations of $761 million.
Institutional Growth: While spot volumes fell, institutional transaction revenue rose 37% to $185 million, aided by the acquisition of Deribit.
Healthy Reset: Analysts suggest the late 2025 correction helped eliminate excessive leverage, positioning the market for a more stable structural foundation in early 2026.
Market Reaction
Following the report, COIN stock fell 8% to close at $141.09 on February 12, 2026. The decline was exacerbated by a brief trading disruption on the platform during the earnings release. Over the past year, the stock has remained volatile, dropping over 40% year-to-date amid broader digital asset price softness.

$BTC
#Coinbase #CryptoMarket #EarningsReport #fintech #Bitcoin2026