marketanalysis

It seems too obvious. I don’t understand why the crypto market keeps getting worse. Right now Bitcoin is extremely oversold, even more than at the bottom of the Covid 19 crash. BTC has evaporated nearly $30,000 from its peak, officially breaking below the 50 week MA and pushing millions of investors into Goblin Town also known as a doomsday market.
Is this the end of an era, or just a brutal cleanup before a larger accumulation plan? As whispers of Bitcoin dropping to 40,000, 20,000, or even zero echo everywhere. The crowd is panicking, portfolios are deep in the red, bad news keeps piling up. From US-Iran tensions to stories of American bank failures.
This video not only exposes the current structural weakness of Bitcoin but also reveals a powerful figure. A calculated monetary strategy by Donald Trump for 2026, pushing the market into a stage where there are only two possibilities: win big or fall to zero in 2026. Let’s dissect the on-chain data in this critical moment of crypto.
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1️⃣ A Gloomy Market Structure
The crypto market has painted an extremely gloomy picture as the sell-off wave continued violently throughout the weekend. Even though there weren’t many new events happening, crypto still plunged harder than the stock market, showing the fragility and sensitivity of speculative capital right now.
This is a familiar characteristic of crypto. When traditional markets close, crypto often absorbs all the fear. Investor emotions swing wildly from extreme excitement to despair in a short period of time. From bottom-buying optimism to calling it a scam heading to zero a psychological cycle that repeats endlessly.
The direct trigger of the panic came from geopolitical news surrounding the risk of conflict between the US and Iran. Information about aircraft carrier deployments and military aircraft spread rapidly. Even though no actual military action occurred and both sides remained in negotiations, just the fear of war was enough for the market to overreact.
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2️⃣ Banking Fears and Federal Reserve Shifts
Other factors intensified instability: concerns about the US banking system, leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, and sensational headlines that amplified uncertainty. Kevin Walsh was officially selected by President Trump as the new Fed Chair and labeled by some as potentially dovish.
However, many reputable sources describe him as open-minded toward monetary policy, similar to Alan Greenspan in the 1990s, believing economic growth can occur without triggering high inflation especially amid the AI wave expected to surpass even the previous Internet revolution. This is not necessarily negative for risk assets and could even be a long-term positive factor for crypto, as Walsh is considered knowledgeable about technology, fintech, and digital assets.
Short-term fear escalated further when reports emerged that some small regional US banks failed following sharp volatility in gold and silver markets. In reality, these were not systemically important institutions, and historically such cases have been contained. But in sensitive periods, even a small spark can ignite widespread panic.
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3️⃣ Structural Weakness of Bitcoin
If we observe Bitcoin calmly and separate emotion from data, this is not a random correction. It is a sequence of structural signals pointing to genuine weakness. Key support levels are breaking both in price and psychology. Every rebound appears weak and is quickly sold off.
Global macro conditions do not support a rapid recovery. Interest rates remain high, capital is expensive, liquidity is tight, and risk assets are under repricing pressure. Bitcoin, despite being theoretically independent, cannot escape global liquidity cycles. When liquidity contracts, it is often the first to feel the impact due to its volatility.
On-chain data shows that a significant portion of supply has shifted from profit to loss but has not yet reached full capitulation. This suggests the market is in pain but not enough pain. Historically, durable bottoms often require emotional extremes. Until that stage is reached, holders may continue selling into rebounds to reduce risk exposure.
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4️⃣ The Trump Variable - 2026
Financial markets do not operate solely on charts. They also operate on power and politics. At this highly sensitive moment, Donald Trump re-emerges not with direct promises to crypto, not with a bailout package, and not with an immediate new monetary policy but through a series of strategic political, economic, and monetary decisions ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
At the center of everything lies a crucial political battle. The November 2026 midterm elections are not just a routine event but a decisive turning point. The outcome will determine whether Trump can maintain enough influence to control fiscal, economic, and monetary policy.
Under this pressure, Trump must preserve the image of a strong America an economy that continues to grow, inflation that remains manageable, and asset markets that do not collapse. The most sensitive and critical factor here is monetary policy. Trump needs cheaper money. Signals suggest that the current administration is willing even prepared to tolerate a weaker US dollar if it serves broader economic objectives.
Since Trump returned to the center of power, the US dollar has lost approximately 15% of its value. This means every dollar denominated asset stocks, bonds, commodities, and Bitcoin has entered a repricing phase. This is not a traditional bull cycle. It is a direct consequence of currency devaluation.
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5️⃣ Bitcoin’s Ultimate Test
If the US dollar truly enters a deliberate weakening cycle, this should theoretically be the environment Bitcoin was designed for. Yet paradoxically, Bitcoin has not responded strongly. Price remains sideways, volatility is muted, and skepticism grows.
Is Bitcoin truly a store of value, or merely a speculative asset dependent entirely on market sentiment? History shows that Bitcoin does not follow conventional financial logic. It has no earnings reports, no cash flow, no traditional valuation framework. Ultimately, its narrative revolves around price.
When price falls, fear spreads and confidence erodes. When price rises, doubts disappear. The market is now waiting for a decisive signal perhaps just one powerful bullish candle capable of changing the entire narrative. From “Bitcoin has failed” to “Bitcoin is digital gold 2.0.”
The market stands at a clear crossroads. If the dollar continues to weaken, if the Federal Reserve’s independence is questioned, and if political pressure for easier money intensifies yet Bitcoin still fails to react then its entire narrative may need to be rewritten.
Conversely, if capital shifts decisively and Bitcoin breaks out of its current stagnation, sentiment could reverse rapidly. Bitcoin may once again be viewed as the asset born precisely for the scenario the world is entering.
Trump does not directly save Bitcoin, nor does he guarantee a new bull cycle. What he does is push the market into a position where it cannot avoid a decision. Either the traditional financial system retains trust, or capital will be forced to seek alternatives.
And in that landscape, Bitcoin faces its greatest test since its creation. Not a moment for blind belief but for the market itself to deliver its final verdict.
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