🚀August 22, 2025 – Markets are recalibrating ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s high-stakes Jackson Hole speech, and the odds for a September interest rate cut are shifting—here’s your latest breakdown for Binance Square.

invest reports the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September has fallen to 71.5%, down from prior enthusiasm, driven by rising jobless .

Seeking Alpha features Ed Yardeni’s view that the odds now stand at below 50%, citing ongoing inflation pressures and economic resilience.

Reuters adds further clarity, noting that markets have pared expectations significantly—with just a 25% chance currently priced in for a September cut—as robust manufacturing data counters earlier soft labor signals.

🚀What's Behind the Shift?

Cooling Data Signals: A jump in unemployment claims has rattled market confidence, prompting traders to dial back rate-cut expectations .

Red-Hot Inflation: Persistent inflation and strong output figures are keeping policymakers cautious. Yardeni believes the Fed may hold steady in September.

Strong Manufacturing Performance: Solid PMI results suggest the economy may be stronger than expected, reducing urgency for policy easing.

💰Final Take for Binance Square.

Once, markets were leaning toward a high‑probability cut next month—but expectations have cooled fast. With odds now somewhere between 25% and 70%, the spotlight is firmly on Powell. Crypto traders, BTC holders, and DeFi stakeholders should watch for his speech and key data releases that could reignite rate-cut momentum—or stall it.

Let me know if you'd like a deep dive into how these odds impact crypto markets or what trade setups could benefit.