$BTC

After the sharp BTC sell-off, the big question is obvious: "Was this the bottom or just the first move?"

Here’s my current read on $BTC after the recent sell-off. There are a few realistic scenarios worth considering.

Scenario 1: Black swan, not a bear market
This move could be driven by a black swan–type event rather than a true cycle shift.
In that case:
The sell-off is reactiveStructure damage is temporaryPrice may recover faster than expected once uncertainty fades
This would explain the violence of the move without requiring a full bear market thesis.

Scenario 2: Bear markets rarely end with a V-shape

Historically, bear markets rarely bottom with a clean V-shaped recovery.
If this is the start of a broader bearish phase:
The immediate upside would be suspiciousFast recoveries tend to failPatience becomes more important than prediction
Sharp bounces can happen, but they don’t automatically mean “bottom in”.

Scenario 3: Range before resolution
More often than not, markets need time. A common pattern after major sell-offs:
Strong initial bounceFollowed by weeks or months of sideways rangeThen a clearer directional move
This range phase is where sentiment resets and real positioning happens.
Takeaway
Right now, it’s less about calling the bottom and more about watching how the price behaves after the bounce.

Does BTC:
Reclaim structure quickly?Fail and range?Or break down again?
The answer won’t come from one candle; it will come from time.

Another important technical detail is that BTC was recently rejected from the Weekly 200 Moving Average. Historically, this level acts as a key cycle filter.

In past bear markets, BTC has typically traded below the 200 MA for a period of time before a durable bottom was formed.

Because of that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price dip below the Weekly 200 MA as part of a bottoming process. That kind of move wouldn’t signal weakness by itself; it would more likely confirm a bear-market bottom structure rather than invalidate the asset.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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