đ„ WALLER AT THE FED? WILL TRUMPâS RATE-CUT DREAM HIT A WALL đ„
Markets are heating up đ as Waller is floated as the next Federal Reserve Chair â seen as a rules-oriented, politically acceptable pick who appears friendly to rate cuts đ. But donât get carried away just yet.
â ïž Reality check
The Fed Chair isnât all-powerful. The FOMCâs one-person-one-vote system, legal independence, and market credibility mean Waller canât slash rates on his own, no matter who appoints him.
𧩠Why Waller looks like the âoptimalâ choice:
âą Signals openness to rate cuts đïž
âą Maintains credibility via balance sheet reduction âïž
âą Politically smoother confirmation path đïž
đ But the macro doesnât lie
Hawkish and centrist members still dominate the FOMC. Inflation remains sticky, and 2026 growth expectations donât justify aggressive easing. Even with Waller steering expectations, he likely secures only a few votes.
đ Best case: slow, symbolic rate cuts
đ More likely: balance sheet reduction first
đ Trumpâs dream of sub-1% rates? Very unlikely đ«
đ Bottom line
This looks more like a White House political move than a real monetary pivot. A short honeymoon is possible â but medium-term friction feels inevitable.
So what do you think?
đ Will Waller cut rates first⊠or shrink the balance sheet first?
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