Hello crypto investors!

I would like to open a discussion on a topic I find interesting, the current price action and what the future might look like for Bitcoin and crypto in both the short and long term.

My current view on the market: In the short term (the next few months), it feels like right now everyone has accepted we are in a bear market. And the market is reacting accordingly, prices are dropping, people are deleveraging, and we are seeing a lot of capitulation.

At the moment, we have found a local bottom for Bitcoin at around 60k, and now its starting to look very obvious to me that the cycle is repeating. The overall picture is: Just buy when the market bottoms sometime from late summer to early winter of this year. Accumulate as much as possible during these months, and then the price should start going up, probably starting sometime early 2027 for the next 2 years. So just HODL and sell for a profit sometime in 2028/2029. Right? And then repeat.

Now I also wonder, If this is really the "base case" and everyone expects this, meaning buying a lot during this year, wouldnt that mean the price shouldnt drop much further because of the massive amount of buyers?

I also realize the market needs a "cleansing." Many companies and individuals probably took on too much risk coming into this cycle, invested more than they could afford to lose, and are now being forced to sell. This selling pressure might continue for a while. So its impossible to know the exact bottom in short term, maybe we see Bitcoin at 50s, 40s or maybe even lower. I feel like the strategy remains the same: avoid leverage, dont borrow money to invest, and just keep buying/chilling.

Is it really this easy, or is it more complicated than I am making it out to be?
What do you guys think will happen for the rest of 2026? Also, when people say "nobody knows anything", I usually assume its a short term price action which is indeed impossible to predict. But the big picture seems quite clear. As the saying goes, "when in doubt, zoom out."

Anyway, this is what I am seeing, what do you guys think will happen this year?
I am curious to see your perspectives!:)