A recent piece in @WSJ titled “Squeezed by U.S. and China, the World’s Middle Powers Are Teaming Up” highlights a growing trend where nations are looking for ways to work around major global players regarding security, supply chains, and trade. From my perspective, history indicates that it is quite simple for Middle Powers to form a consensus around their shared apprehensions. An acquaintance of mine aptly described this fear as the "weaponization of interdependence." However, despite this shared anxiety, these nations often face significant challenges when trying to identify specific intermediate goals and the practical mechanisms required to reach them.

This situation leads to a few key observations. First, the influence of China and the US likely has more staying power than is generally appreciated. Second, if the current bipolar system were to break down, it is improbable that a stable “Third Pole” would step in to fill the void; instead, we would likely witness increased fragmentation across the globe. Finally, for most nations, choosing to ignore multilateral institutions in this context constitutes a strategy fraught with high risk. #economy