#update
BTC Monthly Outlook — 55 EMA Holding the Macro Trend
Bitcoin is currently testing one of the most important long-term trend indicators on the chart: the 55-month EMA, which has acted as dynamic support/resistance since January 2015.
During the recent sell-off, BTC wicked into this level and successfully held, suggesting that long-term buyers are still defending the macro trend.
As of now:
55-month EMA: ~63K
Current thesis: 60K likely marked the local cycle bottom
Invalidation: Monthly close below the 55 EMA
If Bitcoin can close the month above ~63K, the probability increases that this move was a standard macro pullback rather than the start of a deeper bear phase.
In past cycles, sustained acceptance above the monthly 55 EMA has consistently preceded continuation toward new highs. The level remains the line that separates bull market continuation from structural weakness.