BTC: Can It Really Fall to $56k?

As my American colleagues would say, "It's been a minute" since you posted something. Let me apologise again for that. As mentioned in several previous posts, I have been creating a lot more videos; check them out here: https://youtube.com/@nosacapital.

There has been a bloodbath in the markets, and Bitcoin has been one of the victims. The hoopla and discourse have been frenzied. Nevertheless, if people had spent time looking more closely, the clues were there. Yours truly looked at just two metrics. First, we have the True Market Mean (TMM), and secondly, the Short-Term Holders (STH) Cost Basis. TMM represents Bitcoin's fundamental fair value baseline, calculated as cumulative Investor Cap divided by Active Supply. For a while, the TMM was a zone of support for the price of BTC. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis represents the average acquisition price of coins held by short-term holders (no more than 155 days). This metric helps identify local market extremes and temperature. Holders of BTC in this current dispensation have found themselves underwater and, of course, are panicked.

So, what are we looking for to solicit the drop to around $56k? First, the price of BTC must fall below the TMM. For a while, the TMM had been a support zone for BTC, but eventually, the price fell below. Second, the STH also had to fall below the TMM. So far, it has not done so. BTC price is still flirting with $56k, but until we see the STH fall below the TMM, a watch-and-see approach is appropriate.

As of the time of writing this post, the price of BTC is $69,901. Is it possible for BTC to fall any further? Yes! But as to when that will happen, your guess is as good as mine.